####018004054####
AXPZ20 KNHC 052116

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Sun May 5 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica/Nicaragua 

near 11N86W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 07N110W to 07N119W. 

The ITCZ extends from 07N119W to 09N130W to beyond 09N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 

116W and 129W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Broad high pressure is over the offshore waters of Mexico. The 

pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower 

pressure in Baja California is supporting moderate to locally fresh

NW winds offshore the peninsula. Seas with these winds are in 

the range of 5 to 6 ft within NW swell. In the Gulf of 

California, winds are light and variable S of 30N along with seas

to 2 ft. N of 30N in the northern Gulf, gentle to moderate SW 

winds are ongoing with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere in the S and SW 

Mexican offshore waters winds are light to gentle from the NW 

with moderate seas to 6 ft in mixed S and NW swell.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San 

Lazaro will increase to fresh to strong speeds this evening 

through early Mon morning. South of Cabo San Lazaro, fresh winds

will dominate as a cold front moves southward across the Baja 

California Norte and northern Gulf of California offshore waters

tonight into Mon. NW swell with seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the

front across the Baja California offshore waters N of Cabo San

Lazaro Mon through Thu. Gentle to moderate speeds are expected 

to settle of the Baja California offshore waters later this week. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Light variable winds prevail across the offshore waters north of

02N with seas 4 to 6 ft within S swell. South of 02N, gentle to

moderate winds prevail with 4 to 7 ft seas within S swell.

Scattered showers continue across the Costa Rica, Panama and

Colombia offshore waters. 



For the forecast, winds south of 07N will increase moderate to

locally fresh from Mon night through Thu. Light to gentle 

variable winds will be prevalent elsewhere along with moderate 

seas due to a S swell. Otherwise, seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the 

Galapagos Islands will continue for most of the week. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A cold front extends across the northern waters from 30N117W to 

27N140W. Moderate N winds are noted behind the front with seas 6

to 7 ft. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the area and is

influencing the wind flow regime. The pressure gradient between 

the high pressure and relatively lower pressures from southern 

California to the Gulf of California is allowing for moderate to 

fresh N to NE winds N of the ITCZ to 24N, just south of the 

front, and W of 115W. Seas range 5 to 9 ft within mixed swell. 

South of the ITCZ, gentle and moderate winds are noted with seas 

7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 

prevail.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western

part of the tropical waters will prevail through mid-week. Seas 

with these winds will be 5 to 9 ft and will subside by Wed. A 

weak cold front will continue to move S-SE and gradually weaken 

on Mon. NW swell following the front will impact the waters 

mainly N of 26W and E of 130W by Mon night through Thu, bringing

seas to 10 ft. The swell will subside below 8 ft by Thu night.



$$

AReinhart