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AXNT20 KNHC 052231

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Mon May 6 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2230 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of 

Sierra Leone near 09N14W and continues southwestward to 07N18W. 

The ITCZ extends eastward from 07N18W to 03N47W. Scattered 

moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 06N 

and west of 14W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas 

dominate most of the basin. Scattered moderate to isolated strong

convection is noted off the Texas coast within the NW Gulf of

Mexico, N of 26N and W of 91W. Smoke from agricultural fires in 

portions of southern Mexico is reducing visibility and creating 

hazy conditions across parts of the southwest and west- central 

Gulf of Mexico.



For the forecast, low pressure extending from NE Mexico into the 

southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in moderate to fresh SE

winds across much of the Gulf through late week. Fresh to locally

strong winds will pulse at night through late week off the 

northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural 

fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central

Gulf. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of 

the Lesser Antilles, combined with abundant tropical moisture, is 

resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms across the north- 

central and eastern Caribbean Sea. The trough will gradually 

weaken and move farther northeast of the area, but atmospheric 

conditions will remain favorable for convection capable of 

producing gusty winds and frequent lightning early this week. 

Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat of flooding to 

Puerto Rico today. See local weather advisories for more 

information. 



Moderate to locally fresh E winds and slight to moderate seas are

observed across most of the basin, including the Windward 

Passage. Light to gentle winds are noted in the SW Caribbean with

slight seas. 



For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western 

Atlantic is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades over the 

SE Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse nightly

in the Windward Passage into the middle of the week. A surface 

trough that had been impacting the north-central and NE basin has 

finally lift NE and out of the area, taking showers and 

thunderstorms with it. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A weak cold front extends from a 1017 mb low near 26N57W to 

28N74W. No convection is directly associated with this front. 

Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas are noted north

of the front, while gentle or weaker NE to E winds and slight 

seas are found south of the front. 



Further east, another modest cold front extends from 30N40W to 

21N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the 

front N of 22N and W of 33W. Ahead of the front to 30W, moderate 

to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are present. Off the coast of 

Morocco, Western Sahara, and in the vicinity of the Canary and 

Cabo Verde Islands fresh to strong NE winds are occurring. 

Moderate seas are found in these waters, with the highest seas 

found where winds are fresh. Waters south of 19N are dominated by 

moderate trades and moderate seas. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the weak cold front extends will 

gradually dissipate as it drifts southward through tonight. High 

pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will 

support fresh trade winds south of 24N through mid week. 

Meanwhile, large N swell associated with a gale center well north 

of the region over the north central Atlantic will move through 

the waters north of 27N and east of 60W Mon night through Tue 

night. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SW winds off 

northeast Florida as the high pressure shifts southeast ahead of a

front moving off the Carolinas. 



$$ 

AReinhart