####018005139####
AXNT20 KNHC 060539

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0605 UTC Mon May 6 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0455 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of

Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 05N18W. 

The ITCZ extends eastward from 05N18W to 02N34W and to 02N50W. 

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south

of 05N and west of 17W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



High pressure over the western Atlantic extends southwestward into

the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are

occurring off Yucatan and the NW Gulf, while moderate to locally 

fresh easterly winds are found in the rest of the western half of 

the Gulf and the Florida Straits. This was confirmed by a recent

scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft 

according to the latest ship and buoy observations. Moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the rest of 

the basin.



Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident 

in the SW and west-central Gulf.



For the forecast, low pressure extending from NE Mexico into the

southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in moderate to fresh

SE winds across much of the Gulf through Thu night. Fresh to 

locally strong winds will pulse at night through late week off the

northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural 

fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central

Gulf. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A persistent upper level trough continues to enhance the

development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially in

the afternoon and evening hours, across the Greater Antilles and

surrounding waters. The trough will gradually weaken and move 

farther northeast of the area, but atmospheric conditions will 

remain favorable for convection capable of producing gusty winds 

and frequent lightning early this week. Locally heavy rainfall 

continues to bring a threat of flooding in the islands. See local

weather advisories for more information. 



A weak pressure pattern across the Caribbean result in moderate to

locally fresh easterly winds in the central and eastern portions

of the basin, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these 

waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight 

seas prevail.



For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic

is supporting moderate trades over the central and SE Caribbean. 

Moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse nightly in the 

Windward Passage early this week. Late this week, SE winds will 

increase to fresh in the Gulf of Honduras and adjacent NW 

Caribbean. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A 1024 mb high pressure system between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda

dominates the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W. Moderate to locally

fresh easterly winds are noted south of 27N and west of 60W. Seas

in the area described are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate

or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.



Farther west, a cold front extends from 31N37W to 22N55W. Widely

scattered showers are evident ahead of the front. Moderate to

fresh southerly winds are evident ahead of the front to 30W and

north of 25N. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Behind the front 

to 55W and north of 26N, moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas

of 5-8 ft prevail. 



The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by

a weak high pressure system near Madeira. Moderate to locally

fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found south of 15N and

west of 30W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower

pressures in NW Africa support moderate to locally strong

northerly winds north of 20N and east of 22W, with the strongest

winds occurring off Western Sahara and Morocco. Seas are 4-7 ft in

these waters. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, moderate or

weaker winds and moderate seas are evident.



For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front has devolved into

a surface trough that is noted from 25N55W to 25N70W. High 

pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will 

support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N through mid 

week. Meanwhile, large N swell associated with a gale center well 

north of the region over the north central Atlantic will move 

through the waters north of 27N and east of 60W Mon night into Tue

night. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SW winds off 

northeast Florida starting Wed as the high pressure shifts 

southeast ahead of a front moving off the Carolinas. 



$$

Delgado