####018005261####
AXPZ20 KNHC 071544

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Tue May 7 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N77W to 10.5N83W to 06.5N95W 

11.5N106W to low pres 1009 mb near 09.5N110.5W. The ITCZ extends

from 08N113W to 04N127W to 05N132W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered

moderate to strong convection is noted N of 02N and E of 85W,

extending into the SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate isolated 

strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 86W and 107W,

and from 07N to 09N W of 133W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure centered NE of Hawaii extends a broad ridge 

southeastward over the offshore waters of Mexico to near the 

Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high 

pressure and lower pressure across interior Mexico is supporting 

moderate NW winds offshore the peninsula, with locally fresh 

winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Seas across this

area are in the range of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell, highest N of 

Punta Eugenia. Inside the Gulf of California, winds are light and

variable with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere across the S and SW 

Mexican offshore waters, winds are light to gentle, except along 

the coastal waters of Guerrero and Oaxaca where moderate W to NW 

winds are noted within 90 nm of the coasts. Seas in with these 

winds in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters remain 5 to 6 ft in

mixed S and SW swell.



For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the local area will 

shift NE throughout the week, and act to weaken the pressure 

gradient across the Baja California offshore waters. This will 

lead to the continuation of moderate NW winds across the Baja 

Peninsula waters through Thu, with small areas of locally fresh 

winds developing near the coasts each afternoon and evening. As 

the high pressure shifts northeastward, NW winds will increase 

across the near and offshore waters of California, with fresh NW 

winds extending southward to the Baja Norte waters NW of 

Guadalupe Island. Associated NW swell will continue to move into 

the area offshore waters through the week, with seas in excess of

8 ft persisting across the waters north through west of Punta 

Eugenia through Thu afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds and 

moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore 

waters through Sat.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Heavy showers and thunderstorms are shifting westward off the 

coast of Colombia into the Gulf of Panama, and Colombian waters

to 02n, and are likely supporting strong gusty winds, and 

moderate to rough seas. Over the remainder Central America 

offshore waters, winds remain light and variable and seas 

moderate to 6 ft in S swell. Between the coast of Ecuador and the

Galapagos Islands, winds are mainly moderate from the S to SW 

with 5 to 6 ft seas in S swell.



For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are

expected S of 07N this morning through Thu, which are likely to

feed into increasing showers and thunderstorms shifting slowly

westward across the area today through Thu. Light to gentle 

variable winds will be prevalent elsewhere along with moderate 

seas in S swell. Otherwise, southerly swell will maintain seas 

of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through early Fri, 

increasing to 6 to 8 ft in S swell Fri afternoon through Sat.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



1029 mb high pressure is centered NE of Hawaii near 40N137W and 

extends a ridge south and southeastward across the subtropical 

waters, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate N-NE winds 

are noted N of 20N between 115W and 125W, then become NE to E-NE

to the west of 125W. Seas across this area N of 20N are 6-8 ft 

in NW swell. S of 20N, between the ridge and the ITCZ and W of 

120W, moderate to fresh NE winds and 7-8 ft seas in NE swell 

prevail. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE to E winds are 

noted with 6 to 7 ft seas in mixed SE and SW swell. Elsewhere, 

light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western

part of the tropical waters will prevail through this afternoon 

then gradually diminish to moderate speeds through Fri as high 

pressure N of the area shifts northeastward. Seas within these 

winds will be 6 to 8 ft, and subside tonight into Wed. NW swell 

across the Baja California Norte waters will build through mid 

week to produce seas of 8 ft and greater, mainly N of 25W and E 

of 130W Wed through Thu night. The seas there will subside below 

8 ft late Thu night.



$$

Stripling