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AXPQ20 PGUM 071951

TWDPQ 



Tropical Weather Discussion

National Weather Service Tiyan GU

551 AM ChST Wed May 8 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between

the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is

based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,

and meteorological analysis.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



None.



...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...



NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...

The Near-Equatorial Troughs (NET) enters the area of responsibility 

(AOR) near 3N130E, and extends east through Joint Typhoon Warning 

Center (JTWC) Invest 90W sub-low southeast of Yap Proper near 4N140E,

then southeast through another circulation south of Weno, Chuuk near

5N150E, and exits the AOR near EQ154E. Moderate to deep convection 

is occurring within and north the NET, especially from southeast of 

Yap and Palau to the circulation south of Chuuk.



TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE...

Convergent trade winds extend from near Chuuk state across eastern 

Micronesia and ends southeast of Majuro. Pockets of moderate to deep

convection are occurring near Chuuk and between Kosrae and Majuro 

within the convergent trade wind feature.



SURFACE TROUGH/LOW...

A surface low located near 5N150E, south of Weno, Chuuk is generating

convection over the area. Also extending south and southeast from 

the low associated with surface convergence are bands of moderate to 

deep convection. Between Kosrae and Majuro a surface trough is 

generating moderate to deep convection. Near 4N140E a tropical 

disturbance (Invest 90W) is generating deep convection southeast of 

Koror.



TUTT...

The Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) enters the AOR near

25N160E and extends southwest to an upper low southeast of Minami 

Torishima near 23N157E. Moderate to deep convection and scattered 

thunderstorms are seen near the upper low southeast of Minami 

Torishima.



...DISCUSSION...

The NET with the embedded circulations will persist and may slowly

meander north. The circulation near Chuuk which is embedded in the NET

may develop into a Tropical Cyclone (TC) as it heads towards Yap and

Palau.



The trade convergence will continue to push west across central and 

eastern Micronesia, slightly shifting north by the end of the week. 



The surface troughs embedded in the trade wind convergence will 

continue to move west.



The TUTT is expected to extend further south the next few days and

enhance convection near Kosrae and Pohnpei near the weekend.



$$



Hong