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AXPZ20 KNHC 080405

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Wed May 8 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0350 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 05N94W to 07N101W. The

ITCZ extends from 08N114W to 05N128W to beyond 06N140W. 

Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from

02N to 07N between 123W and 135W. Scattered moderate convection 

is from 03N to 10N E of 102W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure centered NW of the area extends a broad ridge 

southeastward over the offshore waters of Mexico to near the 

Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high 

pressure and lower pressure across interior Mexico is supporting 

moderate NW winds offshore the peninsula, with fresh winds 

NW of Guadalupe Island. Seas across this area are in the range 

of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell, except 8 to 9 ft NW of Guadalupe Island.

Inside the Gulf of California, winds are light to gentle and 

variable, with seas to 3 ft S of 29N. N of 29N, moderate to

locally fresh SW winds are present along with seas to 3 ft.  

Elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters, winds are

moderate from the NW and seas remain 5 to 6 ft in SW swell.



For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the local area will 

shift NE throughout the week, and act to weaken the pressure 

gradient across the Baja California offshore waters. This will 

lead to the continuation of moderate NW winds across the Baja 

Peninsula waters through Wed, with small areas of locally fresh 

winds developing near the coasts each afternoon and evening, then

weaken to gentle to moderate Thu through Fri. As the high 

pressure shifts northeastward, NW winds will increase across the 

near and offshore waters of California, with fresh NW winds 

extending southward to the Baja Norte waters NW of Guadalupe 

Island. Associated NW swell will continue to move into the area 

offshore waters through the week, with seas in excess of 8 ft 

persisting across the waters north through west of Punta Eugenia 

through Thu evening. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 

are expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters through

Sat.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail across the offshore

waters between the Colombian coast to Costa Rica. This active 

weather is likely producing frequent, strong gusty winds, and 

moderate to rough seas. Over the remainder Central America 

offshore waters N of 06N, winds remain light and variable and 

seas moderate to 5 ft in S swell. Between the coast of Ecuador 

and the Galapagos Islands, winds are mainly moderate from the S 

to SW with 5 to 6 ft seas in S swell.



For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are

expected S of 07N through Thu, which will likely continue to 

feed into the very active showers and thunderstorms shifting 

slowly westward across the area. Computer models show abundant 

low level moisture moving slowly westward across the area N of 

02N through Thu. Favorable upper atmospheric conditions are 

expected to support very active convection during this time. 

Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere along with 

moderate seas in S swell. Otherwise, southerly swell will 

maintain seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands Wed through

early Fri, increasing to 6 to 8 ft in S swell Fri afternoon 

through Sat.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



1032 mb high pressure is centered well offshore of northern 

California and extends a ridge south and southeastward across 

the subtropical waters, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. 

Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are noted N of 20N between 115W and

130W, then become NE to E-NE to the west of 130W. Seas across 

this area N of 20N are 6-9 ft in NW swell. S of 20N, between the

ridge and the ITCZ and W of 120W, moderate to fresh NE winds and

7-8 ft seas in NE swell prevail. South of the ITCZ, gentle to 

moderate SE to E winds are noted with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed SE 

and SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and 

moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western

part of the tropical waters will gradually diminish to moderate 

speeds through Fri, as high pressure N of the area drifts 

northeastward. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are expected across the area of 

trade winds tonight, and gradually subside to 6 to 7 ft through 

Thu. NW swell across the Baja California Norte waters will build 

through mid week to produce seas of 8 ft and greater, mainly N of

25W and E of 130W Wed through Thu night. The seas there will 

subside below 8 ft late Thu night, and to 6 ft or less on Sat.



$$

Ramos