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AXNT20 KNHC 080544

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0605 UTC Wed May 08 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0530 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The majority of the monsoon trough remains inland over Africa, 

and extends briefly southwestward off the west coast of Africa 

to near 09N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates the 

ITCZ begins and continues to 05N24W to 03N31W to 02N39W and 

02N40W to 03N44W and to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered 

moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm north

of the ITCZ between 39W-42W. Additional scattered moderate to

isolated strong convection is well southeast of the ITCZ from 

02N to 04N and east of 10W to well inland Africa. Scattered 

moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ 

between 42W-46W, and also well south of the ITCZ from the 

Equator to 03N between 11W-19W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



The Bermuda subtropical ridge extends west-southwestward to the

north-central Gulf. Recent partial ASCAT data and latest buoy 

observations show light to gentle winds in the eastern Gulf, 

and generally gentle to moderate southeast winds over the rest 

of the basin, except for moderate to fresh east to southeast winds 

over the western Gulf and Bay of the Campeche. Per latest

altimeter data and buoy observations, seas are in the  3 to 5 ft,

except for slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over the central

Gulf and lower seas of 2 to 4 ft over the NE and southeastern Gulf 

areas. 



Satellite imagery shows overcast mostly mid and upper-level 

clouds streaming east-northeastward over the western Gulf north of

24N and west of 90W. In addition, haze due to agricultural fires 

in southeastern Mexico persists in the SW and west-central Gulf 

Otherwise, mostly clear skies are elsewhere across the basin.



For the forecast, low pressure extending from north-central 

Mexico into the southern U.S. plains will continue to draw in 

mainly fresh SE winds across much of the Gulf into Thu night. 

Locally strong winds are likely to pulse nightly through late week

off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Looking ahead, a 

weak cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest 

Gulf Thu night, shift southeastward and slow down and weaken 

further as extends from South Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by late

Sat. The haze in the SW and west-central Gulf sections is 

expected to linger into early Fri.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A persistent broad mid to upper-level trough is over the western 

Atlantic, with its southern portion stretching southwestward into

to the north-central Caribbean. Isolated weak showers are over the 

waters between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. The trough will 

gradually weaken and move farther northeast of the area through

Thu night. Abundant deep-tropical moistures remains prevalent in 

the eastern Caribbean. This in combination with ample instability 

provided by the aforementioned trough should result in more

precipitation, some possibly locally heavy, over some sections of

that part of the sea through at least early on Thu. Presently, 

scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 14N

to 16N and east of 72W. Please see local weather advisories for 

more information.



Recent ASCAT data indicates that moderate to fresh trade winds are 

over the south-central Caribbean. Seas over these waters are in 

the 4 to 6 ft range. The data along with a few buoy observations 

reveal gentle to moderate trade winds over the rest of the basin. 

Seas with these winds are 3 to 5 ft.



For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western 

Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the 

south-central and SE Caribbean through late week. Meanwhile, 

expect pulses of fresh to locally strong east winds mainly at 

night across the Gulf of Honduras starting Wed night, between the 

high pressure and lower pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle to 

moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



The SW North Atlantic continues to be under the influence of 

high pressure that is anchored by a weak 1019 mb high center 

analyzed southeast of Bermuda near 31N53W. The associated 

gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds to exist 

south of about 23N and west of 60W and from 18N to 21N between 45W

and 57W. Another weak high center, of 1017 mb, is near 29N70W. A 

trough bisects the Florida peninsula from N to S. A cold front 

extends from near 31N27W southwestward to 21N36W, where it becomes

a stationary front to 18N42W and a weak frontal trough from there

to near 17N55W. Broken to overcast mostly low and mid-level 

clouds with embedded patches of rain and embedded showers and 

isolated thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm either side of a 

line from 18N42W to 17N51W and to near Guadeloupe. Overcast 

multilayer clouds, with large patches of mostly moderate rain and 

embedded showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are ahead of 

the front north of 20N. The pressure gradient is weak over the 

eastern Atlantic east of the first front.



Low-level cloud streamers in the moist easterly flow are noted 

south of 25N and west of 69W. Isolated showers with some of these 

clouds.



Seas of 8-10 ft due to long-period north swell are north of 26N

between 38W and 55W. Fresh to west to northwest winds are over

this area of seas. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate 

seas are elsewhere.



For the forecast west of 55W, the moderate to fresh trade winds 

over the far southern waters will diminish as the ridge shifts 

eastward into late week. Meanwhile, large long-period north swell

associated with low pressure well north of the region over the 

north central Atlantic will propagate through the waters north of

27N and east of 60W through tonight. Looking ahead, expect fresh 

SW winds off northeast Florida starting Wed night ahead of a cold 

front that is expected to move off the Carolinas.



$$

Aguirre