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AXNT20 KNHC 140427

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0605 UTC Sun Apr 14 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0425 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A broad subtropical ridge north of the

Greater Antilles is forcing fresh to near gale-force easterly 

trade winds across the south-central Caribbean Sea. Winds will 

pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia tonight and Sun 

night. Seas are 8-12 ft in the area described, with the highest 

seas off NW Colombia. Conditions will improve by midweek.



Atlantic Gale Warning: A weak 1016 mb low pressure system near

32N32W is slowly moving southward into the north-central tropical

Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the 1039 mb high 

pressure system in the far north Atlantic and the aforementioned 

low result in strong to gale-force northerly winds north of 26N 

and between 35W and 44W. Seas in these waters are 12-17 ft. The 

strongest winds and highest seas are occurring near 31N37W. Winds 

will drop below gale-force Sunday morning and below strong force 

late Monday. Seas are forecast to peak near 18 ft Monday morning and

then gradually subside, dropping below 12 ft Monday evening.



Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal

near 14N17W and continues southward to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends

from 04N19W to 00N33W and to 01S46W. Scattered moderate to

isolated strong convection is observed south of 03N and west of

22W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A broad subtropical ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico 

dominates the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather 

conditions. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are found south 

of 24N and east of 94W, including the Florida Straits. Seas in 

these waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and 

seas of 2-5 ft are noted north of 23N and west of 93W. Elsewhere, 

moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.



For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf basin. Strong

winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the 

evening the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds 

with slight to moderate seas can be expected through the weekend 

and into early next week. Winds will briefly increase over the 

western Gulf the middle of next week. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please read the Special Features section for details about a gale

warning off NW Colombia.



Pockets of low-level moisture in the NE Caribbean Sea and Gulf of

Honduras are producing light, isolated showers. Outside of the 

gale warning region, the broad subtropical ridge north of the

Greater Antilles forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds in 

the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8 

ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are evident in the

lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds 

and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail off the coast

of Colombia, pulsing to gale-force tonight and Sun night. Seas 

will build to near 12 ft during the period of gale force winds. 

Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Windward Passage, S of 

the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba. Otherwise, 

moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas can be expected 

across much of the basin through the weekend and into early next 

week. Fresh to occasionally strong winds may develop in the Gulf 

of Honduras midweek. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please read the Special Features section for details about a gale

warning in the north-central Atlantic.



A cold front extends from 31N64W to 25N71W, where it becomes a

stationary front to the coast of NE Cuba. A pre-frontal trough is

analyzed from 27N65W to NW Hispaniola. Light showers are noted

near the frontal boundary and surface trough. Fresh to locally

strong southerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are evident north of 28N

and from the front to 58W. A subtropical ridge dominates the

remainder of the western Atlantic behind the frontal boundary,

supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas,

especially east of 77W.



Farther east, a shear line extends from 30N26W to the Leeward

Islands. Outside of the gale warning area, a recent scatterometer

satellite pass show fresh to locally strong N-NE winds north of 

the shear line and east of 60W. Seas in the area described are 

8-12 ft. In the remaining waters, moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate to rough seas prevail.



For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N64W to 

25N70w where it stalls to central Cuba. This front will continue 

to stall from 31N61W to eastern Cuba through Sun and gradually 

dissipate. Strong winds occurring E of the front N of 30N will 

diminish tonight. Rough seas accompanying the front will subside 

by Sun morning. Large N-NE swell across the SE waters will linger 

through the weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will build in the 

wake of the front through early next week with more tranquil 

marine conditions expected.



$$

Delgado