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AXPZ20 KNHC 140927

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Sun Apr 14 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0900 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A trough extends from Colombia near 06N77W to 04N80W to 06N90W. 

The ITCZ continues from 06N90W to 03N100W to beyond 03N140W.

Scattered moderate convection is active from 08N to 12N between

110W and 112W, and from 10N to 13N between 118W and 121W.

 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A scatterometer satellite pass from 03 UTC showed fresh to 

strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, somewhat

diminished from the near-gale force winds noted late yesterday.

These gap winds are gradually diminishing as high pressure that

was over the western Gulf of Mexico for the past couple of days

continues to shift eastward. Rough seas likely persist across the

Gulf of Tehuantepec. Farther north, fresh northerly winds are 

noted off Cabo Corrientes, between the higher terrain on the cape

and higher pressure to the west. Fresh to strong SW winds over 

the northern Gulf of California have likely diminished as an 

approaching cold front moves into Baja California Norte. 



For the forecast, winds continue to diminish across the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico shifts east.

Rough seas will persist through today then subside. Farther 

north, fresh to strong NW winds and NW swell will follow a cold 

front moving into Baja California Norte. The front will dissipate

Mon, but NW swell of 8 to 9 ft will reach as far south as Cabo 

San Lazaro by early Mon, the Revillagigedo Islands by Mon night, 

before subsiding below 8 ft through Tue night. Looking ahead, 

moderate winds and seas will persist across the Mexican offshore 

waters Wed and Thu.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR



Recent scatterometer satellite data and coastal observations

indicate fresh to strong gap winds remain active across the Gulf

of Papagayo region and in the Gulf of Panama. A Jason-3 altimeter

satellite pass from 03 UTC showed only 4 to 5 ft seas off of the

Papagayo area, although higher seas to 8 ft are likely in this

area given the persistence and strength of the gap winds. Light

to gentle winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Farther 

south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the 

Pacific coast of Colombia.



For the forecast, the strong high pressure north of the region 

will support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 

and the coast of Nicaragua through Sun night, pulsing to near- 

gale overnight tonight. The forcing will diminish some Mon into 

Tue, but moderate to fresh winds will continue into Tue evening. 

The same pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to 

strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama through Sun. 

Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker for the next 

several days. Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec will continue to propagate across the offshore waters

of Guatemala and El Salvador through late Sun. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A cold front reaching from northern Baja California Norte to 

25N130W has displaced the subtropical ridge north of 15N, 

allowing for trade winds to diminish slightly farther south into 

the tropics. Various recent altimeter satellite passes sampled northerly

swell of 8 to 13 ft following the front. A mid to upper level 

trough is supporting a surface trough along 115W south of 12N, 

along with scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the 

trough along the ITCZ. A plume of fresh winds and 8 to 10 ft seas

follow the trough from 05N to 15N, originating from the gap 

winds events off Mexico and Central America. Farther south, 

southerly swell to 8 ft is cross the equator between 120W and 

130W.



For the forecast, the cold front will weaken while moving 

eastward across the waters north of 25N into Baja California 

today, then dissipate. High pressure will build in the wake of 

the front, supporting fresh trade winds from 05N to 15N west of 

130W. The swell following the front will subside a little as it

propagates equatorward through Mon reaching as far south of 10N.

The large S to SW cross-equatorial swell will interact with the

northerly swell and create combined seas of up to 10 ft between 

08N to 22N west of 115W. Added to this mix will include a 

component of shorter period wind waves from the fresh trade wind

flow to create an area of confused seas from roughly 10N to 15N 

between 115W and 130W. Farther east, the long tail of fresh to 

strong NE to E winds and rough seas from the Gulf of Tehuantepec

and the Gulf of Papagayo region will reach as far west as 110W 

and as far south as 08N. Looking ahead, winds and seas will

diminish Wed and Thu.



$$

Christensen