####018004173####
AXNT20 KNHC 150002

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0005 UTC Mon Apr 15 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2350 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WARNING...



Near gale-force to gale-force NE winds, and rough seas of 8-12 ft

are expected to develop over Colombia offshore waters tonight.

Winds are forecast to diminish below gale-force by Mon morning,

however, fresh to locally strong winds will continue in the

south-central Caribbean through at least Thu. Please, read the 

latest High Seas Forecast, at 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 

Leone near 07N12W to 04N18W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 

03N24W to 01S30W to 00N39W. Numerous moderate convection is within

180 nm off the coast of Liberia. Scattered moderate convection is

from 06S to 06N between 20W and 32W, and from 03S to 06N between

36W and 50W.  



...GULF OF MEXICO...



High pressure anchored by a 1023 mb high just N of Tampa Bay,

Florida and its associated ridge dominate the Gulf, providing

moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate

seas basin-wide, except for NE fresh winds off the western Yucatan

Peninsula into the E Bay of Campeche.



For the forecast, strong winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan 

peninsula during the next several evenings. Otherwise, moderate to

fresh winds with slight to moderate seas can be expected through 

Fri next week. Winds will become fresh to strong over the western

Gulf on Mon night into Tue.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a

gale warning off the coast of Colombia.



Strong high pressure and associated ridging extending to the

northern Caribbean continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E

winds basin-wide, except for fresh to strong NE winds over the

south-central waters and in the Windward Passage. Seas are 5-7 ft

across the region, except for rough 8-10 ft seas over the offshore

waters of Colombia.  



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail off the 

coast of Colombia, pulsing to gale-force tonight with seas to 11 

ft. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse in the Windward 

Passage, S of the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba for 

the next few days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and 

moderate seas can be expected across much of the basin through the

middle of the week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from 31N58W SW to eastern Cuba. Moderate NE

winds follow the front and cover the offshore waters E of the

Bahamas, increasing to fresh speeds in the Great Bahama Bank and

the Caribbean approaches. N of the Bahamas winds are light to

gentle under the influence of a high pressure just SW of Bermuda.

Over the E subtropical Atlantic, a broad low pressure centered

just N of 30N continue to generate fresh to strong W to NW winds N

of 25N between 31W and 41W and moderate to fresh S to SW winds E

of the low. Long period NE swell associated with this system also

continue to support rough to very rough seas in the 8 to 15 ft

range, highest N of 24N between 32W and 44W. However, rough seas

of 8-10 ft spread SW and reach the SE offshore waters or Puerto

Rico and the Leeward Islands adjacent waters. 



For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will stall and 

gradually dissipate through Mon. Large N-NE swell across the SE 

waters will linger through early this week. High pressure will 

build in the wake of the front early in the week with more 

tranquil marine conditions expected.



$$

Ramos