Expires:No;;925602 FXUS63 KABR 092028 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 328 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above average temperatures are looking likely over the weekend, along with drier conditions. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Plenty of flat cumulus across the region this afternoon, along with a few sprinkles or very light showers across the southern CWA, which is covered with slight chance (20%) PoPs until this evening when all this will begin to wane with the loss of daytime heating. A weak frontal boundary will then move across the region overnight, which will bring a slight uptick in wind speeds from the northwest by morning. Then, as the day progresses on Friday these winds will increase out of the northwest while temperatures warm into the 70s. A weak surface ridge will then move in Saturday night, bringing lighter winds. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Split flow continues for the start of the weekend with a positive tilted ridge over the Northern Plains, putting our area in northwest flow, and a closed low/trough over the Southwestern US. Through the day Saturday, a low will push east, then southeast across Canada. Most of the moisture with this will stay to our northeast in ND/MN. By Sunday morning, Clusters continue to agree on a now open wave over the Southwestern U.S as the mid level low in Canada continues its track southeast, causing for a very weak positive tilted trough over the area from 500mb to the surface. Early next week, a ridge moves overhead as this open wave will continue to be over the central Plains. This ridge pushes east Monday night as our next wave moves in from the west/northwest and over the Northern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, along with its surface low. Clusters agree on this pattern but disagree on exact timing and intensity as this shortwave and low as it pushes east. Overall dry conditions expected through the weekend, however, with this southern system, our southern/southeastern CWA could get clipped with light moisture. Right now most of it does stay to our south, but if the trough/sfc low moves more northward there would be a better chance. Right now latest NBM has 15% pops or less Sunday afternoon across our southeastern CWA and 15-20% over the Coteau Sunday evening. By ~Monday evening/early Tuesday chances of rain starts to move in from the northwest through the midweek with the highest chances of pops Tuesday (40-50%) ahead of the cold front. 20- 50% pops, highest over our eastern CWA, continue Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before diminishing west to east. Probability of 24 QPF>0.25" ending Wednesday at 18Z ranges from 25-35%, highest over the eastern CWA per grand ensemble. Organized severe threat remains low at this time as prob of Cape>500j/kg and shear over 30kts is 10% or less. There should be enough Cape to support some generalized thunder Monday/Tuesday ahead of the cold front. Zonal winds at 850mb and surface will help bring in warmer air with forecasted highs in the mid to upper 70s to around 80 for the weekend, which is above normal for this time of year. Cooler air filters back into the area midweek with highs back in the 60s and lower 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...MMM AVIATION...TMT