Expires:No;;574589 FXUS63 KBIS 032351 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 651 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances (20 to 40 percent) for rain showers continue this evening over much of western and central ND, then mainly across the north overnight. - Temperatures are forecast to warm up through the weekend, with windy conditions on Sunday. - Chances for rain return late Sunday night and continue through the work week. The wettest period will be Monday through Tuesday when most of western and central North Dakota will see medium to high chances (60 to 90 percent) of rain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 S/WV mid level trough swinging east-southeast across eastern Montana into western North Dakota continues to generate enough lift to maintain scattered showers across the local area late this afternoon/early this evening. Showers and clouds across the south should dissipate as we cool this evening, with clouds and chances for showers persisting across the north near an inverted sfc trough moving slowly south across the US/Canadian border tonight. Temperatures will drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s where we clear, remaining above freezing where clouds linger tonight. UPDATE Issued at 526 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Just a quick update to increase shower coverage across southern ND for the next few hours, based on latest radar imagery and trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An upper level low located over southern Ontario will continue to push eastward. Wrap around showers will continue across the northern half of the state. Instability is a bit lacking this afternoon for thunderstorms, but a rumble or two is still possible. Showers will decrease later this evening as instability from daytime heating decreases. Overcast skies from low cumulus has resulted in below normal temperatures with high temperatures in the lower 50s. Breezy winds are being observed across the state from a surface pressure gradient from the aforementioned upper low. A surface trough continues to push across the central half of the state turning winds from southwesterly to northwesterly. Overnight lows could drop into the upper 20s across the southwest as surface high pressure passes through the region. High temperatures Saturday will begin to trend upward to near normal as surface high pressure clears out the region and ridging begins to build out west over the Northern Rockies. Sunday is forecast to be the warmest day as temperatures are forecast to climb into the 60s to 70s out west due to the upper level ridge pushing into the region. In addition a strong surface low will move into eastern Montana with a tight surface pressure gradient leading to windy conditions across western and south central North Dakota. Forecast soundings at this time have around 45 kts mixing down to the surface which will result in advisory level winds. This short term warm up will be short lived as another broad trough pushes across Western CONUS. A strong upper level low pressure system will move up from the Rocky Mountains Monday leading to widespread precipitation across the Northern Plains. The NBM has 50 percent chance of 1 inch rain across the Northern half of the state where the deformation band will likely set up. PWATs are pretty impressive for this event with values around 1.1 inches. Heavy rain is possible from stronger storms. However, there are some areas that could see significantly less rain depending on where the dry slot sets up. Thunderstorms are possible as the system first moves into the region. Instability around 500 j/kg which continues to decrease, however 0-500 mb shear is around 40 kts. CSU Machine Learning Program has backed off on severe weather parameters due to the ensembles having decreased instability, but there still is low chance for severe weather Monday. In addition to rain, windy conditions are expected Monday as a strong surface low with a tight pressure gradient moves through the region. Wrap around precipitation will continue through Wednesday leading to showers and cooler conditions. Temperatures are forecast to sit in the 50s through the middle of the week. After this system washes out near normal temperatures will continue until potential ridge moves into the region late next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR ceilings early this evening at all terminals. MVFR cigs will then develop at KMOT after 06Z early Saturday morning, and possibly at KXWA, KBIS, and KJMS after 12Z. MVFR cigs will slowly improve to VFR late Saturday morning into the afternoon. Breezy northwest winds will taper off after 01Z. Isolated showers remain possible through 02Z, and across the north through tonight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...NH DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...NH