Expires:No;;418629 FXUS61 KBTV 261903 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 303 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure allowed temperatures to return to near normal today. Expect a slight warm up over the weekend, with temperatures reaching into the upper 60s in the warmest locations Sunday. A number of weak shortwaves will pass over Vermont and Northern New York during the forecast period, with widespread, light precipitation in the forecast over the weekend and beyond. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 301 PM EDT Friday...High pressure will continue to keep the skies clear overnight, once again allowing our temperatures to fall below freezing in some of the cold hollows. The western flanks of our CWA will see some clouds with a slight chance of light rain moving in ahead of a low pressure system by the later morning Saturday. Dry air trapped in the boundary layer will ensure qpf amounts remain low. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 301 PM EDT Friday...Mostly cloudy conditions are expected to prevail across the region Sunday into Sunday night as an 850mb warm front translates the area during the daylight hours from west- to-east. Continues to appear in NAM forecast soundings that some modest elevated instability will be present within the frontal zone, and continued with the idea of scattered showers on Sunday, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Most areas will see only light precipitation amounts, mainly 0.10" or less. However, given the increase in PW values above 1" and MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg, localized areas that do see a heavier shower or embedded thunderstorm could see locally higher rainfall, perhaps up to 0.25" to 0.50". Highest PoPs of 40- 60% will be across far northern VT and into the St. Lawrence Valley of northern NY. Despite the cloudiness, developing south winds of 10- 15 mph (and gusts locally 20-25 mph in the Champlain Valley) will allow for temperatures slightly above seasonal averages for late April...generally reaching 65-70F across most locations of the North Country. Warmest readings should be in the CT River Valley, the Champlain Valley, and St. Lawrence county. Heading into Sunday night, a trailing cold front settles sewd from Ontario and swrn Quebec, bringing lingering chances for some light rain shower activity, generally before 04Z before dissipating overnight. Highest PoPs will again be across northern sections, with PoPs near 40% along the intl border. Should see a NW wind shift with moderately strong CAA as surface ridging builds into our region after midnight. Overnight lows generally in the mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 301 PM EDT Friday...Recent NWP trends continue slightly cooler for both Monday and Tuesday. Canadian high pressure and a swd extending ridge across into nrn NY and VT on Monday will support northerly winds, and a shallow cool air mass advecting southward across our region early Monday. Abundant stratus are likely Monday morning, but given the late April sun angle, should see developing partly to mostly sunny conditions by afternoon as clouds will gradually mix out. That will help temperatures reach the mid 60s, but not the mid 70s which appeared likely a couple days ago. Ridge axis shifts eastward Monday night into Tuesday, allowing a mid-level trough to bring widespread clouds and showers to the region throughout the day Tuesday. Have indicated relatively high PoPs (70-80%). Looking for high temperatures on Tuesday in the upper 50s to mid 60s across VT (coolest east of the Green Mtns) and generally in the mid-upper 60s across northern NY. Once this trough shifts to the east Tuesday night, should see generally drier conditions across the North Country through the end of the work week. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with highs generally in the mid-upper 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The aviation forecast continues to lack excitement. We have seen the expected lake breeze winds pick up at BTV and PBG early this afternoon. We are also beginning to see the terrain driven southeasterly winds at RUT. With high pressure locking in dry air, no ceiling concerns exist over the next 24 hours. We will see things begin to change by 18z Saturday as high clouds move into MSS. Outlook... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 29: KBTV: 55/2013 KPBG: 57/1974 April 30: KPBG: 54/2004 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Langbauer NEAR TERM...Langbauer SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Langbauer CLIMATE...WFO BTV