Expires:No;;993461
FXUS63 KDLH 102340
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
640 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of rain and thunderstorms departs this evening, some 
stronger storms possible before then.
 
- Chilly night tonight with Frost Advisories in portions of the 
Arrowhead, and then a warm weekend with a chance for rain showers 
Saturday night into Sunday and then some afternoon thunderstorms 
Sunday in NW WI. 

- Very dry afternoon relative humidity expected both Saturday and 
Sunday, especially across NE MN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A stout little shortwave is moving across the Northland this 
afternoon, throwing rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across 
the area. A more stout cold front has led to some gusty northwest 
winds upwards of 40mph along the edge of showers with other sporadic 
gusty winds falling out of most thunderstorms. Steep low level lapse 
rates have led to a widespread blossoming of convective showers and 
thunderstorms behind the main low pressure system, which will likely 
produce pea sized hail with low freezing levels. Wind will be the 
primary threat out of thunderstorms with efficient momentum transfer 
of higher winds down to the surface, up to 50mph. The chance of 
severe winds of 60mph+ is around 20%, mostly along the I-35 
corridor and eastward. 

Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate this evening as daytime 
heating cools off and the low pressure system pushes to the east. We 
should see clearing skies with light northwesterly flow overnight, 
allowing temperatures to come back down. Have issued a Frost 
Advisory for portions of inland portions of the MN Arrowhead. 
Some guidance also suggested cooler temperatures for portions of
NW WI, but have held off on any headlines in that area for now 
due to clouds lingering slightly longer there. Speaking of the 
cloud cover forecast, we generally expect good clearing 
overnight, especially by the time (just after midnight to very 
early morning) that peak northern light intensity is expected. 
Some partly cloudy skies may linger over the very tip of the 
Arrowhead in Cook County and over Iron County on the South 
Shore. 

Into the weekend, some slight ridging will allow for a large 
boost of warm air bringing temperatures in the 60s and 70s 
Saturday and Sunday. Saturday afternoon should be sunny, warm, 
and dry with ample mixing up to near 750mb. Relative humidities 
could fall to around 25-30%, with locally lower amounts down to 
20% possible. Winds shouldn't be too strong Saturday, but 
slightly higher winds in north-central Minnesota could lead to 
near critical fire weather conditions. A quick shortwave moves 
across Saturday night into Sunday, which should bring some 
light rain showers. Ensembles show precipitation amounts 
trending down for this impulse at most sites across the 
Northland, so it will likely just be a light dampening that 
folks wake up to Sunday morning. As this impulse sweeps 
southeastward there could be some redevelopment of afternoon 
showers and thunderstorms over NW WI. Over NE MN however 
conditions will likely be fairly dry by Sunday afternoon, 
allowing another day of deep mixing to plummet relative 
humidities with strong northwest winds. Should humidities and 
winds forecast trends continue, a Red Flag Warning may be needed
in north-central and northeast Minnesota.

Through next week, additional disturbances may bring passing 
chances of rain and thunderstorms, but no signals at this time 
for anything particularly significant.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued over the Northland
this evening but will diminish in both coverage and intensity
over the next couple hours. Brief dips to IFR conditions, mainly
visibility, are possible with the strongest showers/storms but
most will remain at VFR. Some patchy fog will be possible later
tonight but we left out of the TAFS for now as chances are too
low to include. 

A few showers will be possible over far northern Minnesota
Saturday afternoon. 

The gusty winds will gradually diminish overnight becoming less
than 10 knots for most.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Strong northwesterly winds this afternoon will calm overnight, 
leaving fairly benign conditions on the lake through midday Sunday, 
with northwest to southwest breezes, strongest in the afternoon. 
Sunday, stronger northwest winds increase through the day. However, 
with warm temperatures on land in the 60s and 70s, the strongest 
winds up to 25 knots will likely only be felt closest to shore, and 
primarily along the North Shore. A short period of time on Sunday 
afternoon may warrant a Small Craft Advisory before winds calm into 
Sunday evening and become northeasterly through Monday. 

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ011-012-
     019.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for 
     LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Levens