Expires:No;;318918 FXUS63 KFGF 242358 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 658 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical fire weather conditions with low RH this afternoon and again tomorrow - Friday through the weekend: Greater than 50% chance for more than a half inch a of rain across the area. Amounts over 1" tied to isolated thunderstorm activity. && .UPDATE... Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Satellite showing numerous thermal anomalies associated with prescribed and agricultural related fires today, of which are producing areas of light smoke. This along with higher cirrus moving across the region will give the sky that hazy-filtered sun look to end the afternoon. Overall, no change in previous thoughts within the Discussion. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Sunny skies prevail through the remainder of today with light winds and low RH keeping near critical fire weather in place until RH begins to climb with the collapse of diurnal heating this evening. RH values as low as the upper 10s may continue to drop slightly as we reach peak mixing in the next few hours by 4-5 pm but should remain above 15 percent. The overall synoptic pattern shows ridging over the eastern conus steering southwest flow aloft into our area with an upper low ejecting into the northern plains by Friday morning. It is the combination of this approaching low and the exiting surface high tonight that is giving us an enhanced low level wind field tomorrow. Warm air advection will keep us very warm Thursday in the low to mid 70s for highs though increasing cloud cover by the afternoon could limit mixing somewhat. Overall expect the WAA to overcome this and realize max temps over 70 for most. Sustained wind speeds while impressive are unlikely to reach wind advisory criteria but the combination of winds in the 20-25 mph, gusts of 30-35 mph, and RH of 30-40 percent could yield another day of near critical fire weather conditions. Very unlikely to reach red flag as RH is progged to bottom out on the lower 30s to isolated upper 20s for only a few hours and winds wont be strong enough to compensate (might relocate a few trash cans though). As the upper low near thursday night (still located in eastern CO/western NE/KS) WAA and deformation will allow for increasing precip chances by the late evening though will likely take a few hours of moistening before echos actually begin reaching the surface. PWAT values of 0.6 to 0.9 for a sustained period should allow for efficient warm rain process as widespread totals over 0.5" seem likely as all clusters show at least a 50% across the forecast area by Sunday morning. Those higher totals nearing an inch or greater will be tied to 1) the exact track of the low, and 2) any MUCAPE that can be found to produce thunderstorms. A little more confidence in the first condition currently with a track to our southeast keeping the higher PWATs out of our area through any enhanced pockets of 850/700mb WAA could be enough to generate some MUCAPE that ensembles are not currently able to resolve thus certainly not ruling out the for isolated thunder and some of those higher 1"+ totals to be realized. As this low escapes northeast over the eastern US another low will track through the southwest flow, though with less moisture available not expecting quite as high rain totals. The active pattern persists into next week with southwest flow and and open feed to gulf moisture likely keeping us above average for the period in terms of moisture and even temperature, a stark change from the mostly dry conditions of the past few weeks and even months. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period. Light winds under 10 kt this evening will markedly increase between 11Z-14Z as strong low level, southerly winds aloft move over eastern ND into western MN. These south winds forecast to be 17-27kt gusting 25-35kt (highest at GFK and FAR) will persist through much of the day Thursday. Some brief gusts to 40kt are possible (60%) at GFK and FAR, more likely to occur during the afternoon hours. Low level wind shear is also forecast at DVL between 10Z-13Z. Winds will decrease some near and just after 00Z, but still remain above 15kt. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...CJ