Expires:No;;320248 FXUS64 KFWD 250032 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 732 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday Evening/ Shortwave ridging persists over North and Central Texas this afternoon with a dryline to the west (near the Texas/New Mexico border) and a stalled surface front to the north (near the Red River). Satellite analysis shows Pacific moisture advection and high clouds drifting eastward across the state while the scattered/broken remnants of this morning's low stratus deck lingers overhead. So far, today's convective development has mainly been driven by isentropic ascent/warm advection near and north of the front in Oklahoma. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop in these same areas tonight when the front begins to lift northward as a warm front and a low level jet develops. We will maintain the highest rain chances, 20-30%, generally north of Highway 380 through the evening and overnight hours. As a result of the prevailing southerly low-level flow and moistening boundary layer, low clouds are expected to return/fill in quickly tonight. The increasing cloud cover and persistent warm air advection should keep temperatures mild with lows in the mid/upper 60s by daybreak. A shortwave trough swinging through the Four Corners region on Thursday will encourage a low-level mass response in the form of surface cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado. Apart from a few warm advection driven sprinkles or isolated light showers, the capped warm sector is likely to remain mostly precipitation-free through the afternoon. However, storm chances will increase Thursday evening as the approaching shortwave lifts towards the Central and Southern Plains, dragging the corresponding Pacific cold front/dryline towards our western zones. Convection-allowing models indicate the potential for convection developing along the dryline late tomorrow with upscale growth as storms move into an environment favorable for severe weather (moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear). Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ /Friday Through Early Next Week/ There will be several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. The potential for severe thunderstorms will exist, but their coverage and timing will depend on a variety of factors. This will mainly involve the placement of a stalled frontal boundary and a surface dry line. That being said, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats along with frequent lightning. There is a low chance for an isolated tornado or two as well. It is important to note that regardless of the areal placement of these storms, coverage will vary through the weekend and several locations may not see any storms at all. A shortwave trough will push through the region early Friday morning, with rapid height falls across North and Central Texas. An approaching cold front will interact with an open warm sector that will be in place across our region, leading to the first round of showers and thunderstorms. These will be propagating within a storm environment that will be favorable for severe weather on Friday morning through the afternoon and evening hours. Storms will exit to the east on Friday night before our next round of thunderstorms moves in through Saturday and Sunday as another shortwave trough pushes across the Central Plains. Surface features such as the dry line and a stalling frontal boundary will largely dictate where storms develop through the rest of the weekend, and confidence in their placement as of right now remains quite low. Because of this, a broad mention of showers and thunderstorms is necessary for the public forecast until details can be further refined as higher resolution guidance comes into range for the weekend. On top of this, a windy weekend will be in store with ambient winds potentially gusting upwards of 45 mph as a tight pressure gradient sets up ahead of our weekend system. A Wind Advisory will likely be necessary on Saturday in future forecast packages as we refine these details further. While most of the ingredients for severe weather will be in place, the ultimate question will be regarding the overall quality of lift with the placement of both shortwave troughs and the location of our surface features. The strength of our residual EML/capping inversion will also be in play for our active weather over the weekend. With all of this being said, please continue to stay up-to-date with the latest forecast as confidence increases over the next couple of days. As we move into early next week, a weak ridge will begin to set up once again. This will lead to a short-lived period of dry weather before chances for showers and thunderstorms return to North and Central Texas as our next system pushes into the region. Reeves && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR prevails at all TAF sites as the lifting/scattering of morning stratus overachieved this afternoon. SCT/BKN mid and high clouds based near 6-8 kft are now sprinkled across North and Central Texas terminals. Tonight, the low level jet will strengthen in response to an approaching upper-level trough. As low-level moisture is reinforced, MVFR cigs will spread across the region again late tonight and continue through much of the day Thursday. Could see brief IFR cigs, particularly across Central Texas terminals including KACT. Confidence in how far north these higher end IFR ceilings will spread is low, so did not include any mention in Metroplex TAFs with this issuance. Also, opted to lean slightly more pessimistic (in other words ceilings lowering quicker) than guidance with overnight ceiling trends given the amount of moisture already present in the lower levels. Ceilings will be slow to improve, but VFR conditions are expected to return by mid-afternoon. Otherwise, southerly winds will become increasingly gusty through the afternoon with sustained wind speeds up to 15-20 kts possible with gusts nearing 30 kts. 12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 80 69 83 69 / 10 10 40 80 10 Waco 68 80 69 79 70 / 0 5 10 70 10 Paris 65 79 67 76 68 / 20 10 30 80 30 Denton 67 79 67 83 68 / 10 10 60 70 10 McKinney 67 79 68 80 69 / 10 10 40 90 20 Dallas 68 80 69 82 70 / 5 10 30 80 20 Terrell 65 80 69 78 69 / 5 5 20 80 20 Corsicana 67 82 71 81 71 / 0 5 10 70 20 Temple 67 81 69 81 70 / 0 5 10 60 10 Mineral Wells 67 80 67 86 67 / 10 10 70 50 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$