Expires:No;;709852
FXUS64 KLUB 060745
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
245 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The leading edge of height falls was already overspreading our area 
early this morning ahead of a potent upper low becoming negatively 
tilted over the Four Corners. Although the dryline is situated well 
to our west along the Sacramento Range, the increased upper ascent 
will be too little to overcome an exceptional cap advecting our way. 
So despite PWATs currently around 150% of normal, none of this 
moisture will be wrung out today as the dryline sweeps off the 
Caprock later this morning before ultimately stalling near or just 
beyond our eastern column of counties by mid-afternoon. There is a 
slim chance (<10%) that the dryline convects this afternoon near 
Childress even though this area lies south of the upper jet axis 
where broad subsidence tends to hinder deep convection. On a related 
note, the majority of CAMs and coarser resolution models depict 
today's supercells unfolding along and north of this upper jet axis 
across west central and northwest Oklahoma. Otherwise, strong 
heating within the LL thermal ridge may be enough to temporarily 
breach the cap in the far southeast Texas Panhandle, but any storms 
here should quickly exit our area within 35+ knots of steering flow. 
By late afternoon, a Pacific front will glide E-SE across our 
northwest zones before sweeping out of the Rolling Plains after 
midnight ahead of lighter breezes and much cooler lows in the 40s 
and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Cyclonic flow aloft will continue through mid-week stemming from a 
nearly stationary closed upper low over the Northern Plains. This 
will continue to promote warm, dry, and breezy conditions for the 
area on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Tuesday will already begin 
the day with the dryline well east of the area. Additional surface 
cyclone development will occur in lee of the Rockies on Tuesday in 
southeastern Colorado. The increase in the surface pressure gradient 
will be the primary driver for increased winds. Jet streaks aloft 
will reside north of the area roughly along the 37th parallel. 
Westerly downsloping winds will boost temperatures well above 
seasonal averages. Wednesday becomes a little trickier with the 
surface wind forecast as a cold front attempts to backdoor into 
the area. Models are in a rough agreement in hanging this front up
in the southern Texas Panhandle which would keep much of the 
region within the breezy westerly low level flow and therefore 
continued warmth. The stationary front will then push through the 
area Wednesday night into Thursday morning bringing in cooler 
temperatures for the rest of the week. After some short wave 
ridging aloft to end the work week, models are depicting a trough 
in some form next weekend bringing precipitation chances back to 
the area. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Predominantly MVFR ceilings overnight could dip into IFR territory
at LBB and PVW until the dryline sweeps off the Caprock by late
morning, and eventually past CDS by early afternoon. Breezy S
winds will veer SW following the dryline with some gusts near 30
knots at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Critical fire weather is likely this afternoon and evening over
the northern South Plains and far southwest TX Panhandle where the
breeziest west winds of 25 to 30 mph overlap with very low RH 
values in the single digits. ERCs here remain near or below 
normal which should suppress the severity of fire spread.

Elevated to critical fire weather can again be expected on 
Tuesday afternoon. Relative humidity recovery will be non- 
existent on Tuesday morning. A strong low pressure system in 
southeast Colorado will allow southwest winds to increase across 
West Texas with greatest values on the caprock. Winds at the 20 
foot level are generally expected to be between 20 and 25 mph on 
Tuesday afternoon. Very warm temperatures will continue allowing 
for afternoon relative humidity values to drop into the single 
digits on the caprock.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for 
TXZ021>023-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93