Expires:No;;993659
FXUS63 KLBF 102347
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for showers and thunderstorms increases Saturday
  night through Sunday, especially along and south of I-80.

- Potential for more showers/thunderstorms Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

- Temperatures generally at or above normal, then cooler mid to
  late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A weak surface boundary with a ribbon of short wave energy aloft 
will continue to sag southward through Nebraska, which shows up very 
as a band of blooming cumulus from the panhandle eastward into 
southeast Nebraska. Instability is quite limited but given the vigor 
of the cumulus a stray sprinkle/shower can not be ruled out mainly 
along and south of I-80 through late this evening. However with the 
loss of diurnal heating any showers and convective clouds will 
steadily diminish early tonight, along with any mid/high cloudiness. 
So it looks like cloud cover will generally cooperate with anyone 
looking skyward for the aurora later tonight.

The weekend gets off to a pleasant start with dry conditions and a 
good amount of sunshine. However the upper level closed low 
over the southwestern US will start to eject eastward and rejoin
the main flow. This will draw moisture up from the south and 
drive develoment of a surface low that will move across the 
southern plains. While the best precipitation potential with 
this system will slide by to our south, there will be enough 
forcing on the northern periphery to push showers and 
thunderstorms up from the south starting Saturday night and 
continuing through Sunday before diminishing as the system pulls
off to the east Sunday night. The best potential for 
precipitation will generally be south of I-80 where the 
probability of one quarter inch of precipitation is better than
50 percent, while probabilities trail off rapidly further to 
the north. However by Sunday afternoon the probability for 
measurable precipitation amounts of a couple of hundreths will 
reach 30 percent as far north as Valentine. There is some 
indication that the convective environment may become a bit more
robust by Sunday afternoon with a narrow corridor of 
instability and increasing shear coincident with a good amount 
of mid level deformation and upper diffluence from an upper 
level jet streak passing by to our south. Combined with modestly
steep lapse rates aloft there may be enough ingredients to 
support some strong storms and will be watching evolution of 
this system closely for any increase in severe weather potential
Sunday afternoon/evening.

Highs Sunday will range from around 70 degrees south of I-80 
where precipitation will be more widespread to the upper 80s 
near the SD border. Lows will generally be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Ensemble guidance remains is generally in good agreement into next 
week depicting some low amplitude ridging early next week, followed
by additional northern stream energy pushing another trof 
through the Rockies and into the Plains toward the middle of 
next week. Overall this pattern will allow moisture to pool 
over the midsection of the country as is evident when looking at
the low end signal in precipitable water anomalies. This 
ambient moisture will combine with the progressive pattern to 
keep a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast just
about each day, particularly Tuesday into Wednesday, as the 
next upper trof drives a cold front through the region. 
Temperatures will be warming to at or able seasonal normals 
through the first part of next week, then a bit cooler behind 
the front mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions will persist the next 24 hours. Scattered 
cumulus clouds near 10k FT AGL early this evening will 
dissipated after 01Z. Mainly FEW250 expected overnight through 
the day Saturday. Winds will remain light below 10KT. 

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Roberg