Expires:No;;033897 FXUS65 KPUB 192050 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 250 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag conditions continue this evening over the San Luis Valley. - Rain, snow, and occasional weak thunderstorms continue from this evening into tomorrow, especially for portions of the high country and the Pikes Peak region. - Periodic showers for the mountains and frontal intrusions across the plains but overall warmer, especially later next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Currently.. Radar and satellite imagery depict extensive cloud cover and light precipitation over portions of our central mountains, the La Garitas, and the Pikes Peak region as of 2pm. Temperatures are well above freezing across the area this afternoon, with some locations even in the 50s this hour despite today's cloud cover. Most of the high country is already seeing northwesterly winds, with southeasterly winds still prevailing over the plains. The San Luis Valley is very dry and windy, and is still under a Red Flag Warning until 7pm this evening. Observations across the area indicate southwesterly winds gusting to 30 mph this hour, with relative humidity values in the low teens. Conditions are expected to improve quickly after midnight, as moist easterly winds will likely begin to push in through the terrain east of the valley. This Evening and Tonight.. As better lift continues to move in from west to east across northern portions of the forecast area, expecting showers to continue to spread into Fremont County, the Northern Sangres, the Wet Mountains, and eventually El Paso and northern Pueblo counties as well. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible as well later this afternoon and this evening. Precipitation looks to stay liquid until at least 7pm or so for locations below 10,000ft. After sunset we will start to rain/snow mix along the Palmer Divide and higher elevations of Teller County, with an eventual transition to all snow by midnight, and through the early morning hours for lower elevations of El Paso County. Overall impacts are expected to be very minimal, with highest new snow amounts being around 4 inches for highest elevations of the central mountains and Pikes Peak. Most locations will see 2 inches or less of wet snow with this warm system. Snow showers spread southward into our southeast mountains through the overnight hours, though accumulations are expected to be light down south as well. Tomorrow.. Shortwave energy brings another round of showers and weak thunderstorms to the high country tomorrow in the late morning and early afternoon hours, some of which will begin to leak out onto the plains by early afternoon. Upslope induced, light snow showers continue through the early morning hours of tomorrow on the plains, though dense fog and low clouds could end up being more of a forecast challenge overall, especially for El Paso County. With continued upslope conditions and southeasterly winds through the morning hours, it could be difficult to break out of the cloud cover for long before the next round of showers and weak thunderstorms begins push off the mountains and into the I-25 corridor. High res model guidance points towards a possible clearing period from around 10am through 2pm, though with continued southeasterly winds during that timeframe, confidence is low to medium for substantial clearing over locations that are favored in southeasterly upslope winds. Spotty rain showers and storms look to continue pushing off the terrain and into the I-25 corridor through the afternoon hours tomorrow, with precipitation remaining all liquid, and temperatures warming into the upper 40s to mid 50s for our plains despite extensive cloud cover. The warmest spot on the map looks to be the San Luis Valley tomorrow, where highs look to reach into the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 The upper trough passes to the east Saturday night with showers coming to an end from north to south. Any additional snow accumulation across the higher elevations will be light. Shortwave ridging is expected for Sunday with warmer and drier weather returning. Westerly flow increases for Monday as another system passes to the north. This will bring warmer temperatures along with gustier winds to the region. Will need to monitor the San Luis Valley and southern I-25 corridor locations for possible fire weather highlights, however matters get complicated by an afternoon arrival of a cold front across the plains in the wake of the passing system to the north. The GFS, being on the faster and more southern side of solutions with the eastward progression of the northern plains upper low, backdoors this front into eastern portions of the area in the afternoon. The remainder of the models hold the front off until Monday night. Suspect we will need another Fire Weather Watch as we get closer to the event and details on location become more certain. Temperatures get knocked down a few degrees for Tuesday and post frontal upslope flow and afternoon instability bring an uptick in afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over and near the mountains. Southwest flow increases for late week with increasing spread in extended models on the timing of the next upper wave. Overall, the pattern remains unsettled with a ramp up in critical fire weather conditions possible late week, along with the possibility of some dry line thunderstorms along our eastern border on Wednesday. A more widespread uptick in showers and thunderstorms with the next system and cold front comes late week or into next weekend, though the variations in timing make this a low confidence forecast for the time being. -KT && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 At KCOS...VFR conditions are expected for the next few hours, with showers and MVFR ceilings returning by 01Z this evening. Northeasterly winds, showers, and MVFR ceilings and visibilities continue into the evening hours, but as winds shift to southeasterly around 06Z to 10Z, expect ceilings to lower and visibilities to decrease to IFR and LIFR for several hours early tomorrow morning. A window of improvement to MVFR or VFR is expected from 16Z to 20Z tomorrow, before another round of showers will be possible over and near the station. At KPUB...Gusty easterly winds, rain showers and IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible later this evening, mainly from 03Z to 08Z, though better chances for precipitation will remain to our north and west. Mist and fog will likely reduce our visibility as long as easterly winds prevail through the overnight and early morning hours. As winds shift to more southeasterly after 15Z, conditions are expected to improve to MVFR. AT KALS..Southwesterly winds gusting to 30kt are expected through the rest of this afternoon, with an abrupt shift to gusty easterly winds around 2-3Z this evening as winds pour through the terrain east of station. Mid and upper-level cloud cover is expected throughout the period, though precipitation is not likely this forecast period. Rain and snow showers will be likely along the terrain surrounding the terminals, especially east of station, but is not expected within the vicinity of station at this time. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...EHR