Expires:No;;414993 FXUS64 KEPZ 261728 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1128 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 130 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Breezy winds again on Friday, increasing to windy Saturday afternoon. Patchy blowing dust may reduce visibility in a few locations. Winds finally subside next week with warmer temperatures returning mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Yesterday's wind maker ejecting into the central Plains tonight. Subsequent polar jet streak is currently off the Pacific coast with an upper low developing over the Great Basin. Jet streak flow remains quite far south for late April, thus continued breezy to windy conditions locally. Today looks to be a lull in the winds as the El Paso region sits in between these dual low pressure systems. Winds will pick up again this afternoon out of the southwest at 15 to 25 mph. Patchy blowing dust may occur again, though not nearly as widespread and dense as yesterday. Today also looks a bit cooler, with lowland highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Windy conditions return on Saturday as the polar jet streak moves overhead and surface lee cyclogenesis over SE CO/NE NM induces a surface trough across NM and west TX again. This round looks to be a bit weaker in recent runs, suggesting a more vertical alignment of the system by Saturday afternoon and no further deepening of the low aloft. Will hold off on any wind headlines this package as blended solutions converge on a consensus. For now, expect west winds with sustained speeds of 20 to 30 mph Saturday afternoon, with peak gusts generally 40 mph across much of the lowland zones mid-afternoon. BLowing dust will once again be a consideration. No major weather concerns early next week as the polar jet shifts northward and more zonal flow prevails. Continued dry conditions with a warming trend allowing highs to reach 90 degrees in El Paso again by next Tuesday. Models suggest the approach of the dryline from the east again late next week, possibly reaching the Rio Grande corridor next Friday/Saturday. This would suggest at least a small chance for thunderstorms locally. Will need to monitor ensemble trends for this in the coming days and fine tune PoPs going into early May. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 952 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 P6SM SKC becoming FEW-SCT070-100 overnight over the west. Winds will be on the increase again out of the west-southwest to 15-25G35KTS early in the period and continuing through much of the night. Looks like a break in winds is possible between 09Z-15Z where they will drop to 8-15KTS. By the end of the period, winds will be back up in the 15-20G30KT range and increase after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Critical fire danger continuing through Saturday as winds remain breezy each afternoon and dry air remains in place. Near-critical conditions on Friday with Min RH 10-15% and southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Conditions may reach Red Flag status for a few hours Friday afternoon, but no headlines at this time given the borderline conditions. Stronger winds again on Saturday have prompted Red Flags for portions of south-central New Mexico and far west Texas where RH remains low. Peak gusts of 40 mph Saturday afternoon with areas of blowing dust. Winds diminish Sunday into early next week as dry weather continues and temperatures warm day-to-day. No additional Red Flag headlines anticipated at this time next week. Smoke ventilation will be Excellent through next week with transport to the northeast each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 56 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 50 73 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 50 74 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 47 70 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 33 46 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 48 69 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 40 58 38 68 / 10 10 0 0 Deming 46 71 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 45 67 40 74 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 54 72 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 49 74 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 50 79 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 49 66 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 51 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 49 71 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 53 71 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 46 69 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 48 71 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 50 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 48 70 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 40 59 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 39 57 35 64 / 0 10 0 0 Timberon 35 57 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 59 37 69 / 0 10 0 0 Hillsboro 43 66 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 44 68 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 38 58 34 69 / 10 10 0 0 Hurley 39 63 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 43 66 39 75 / 10 10 0 0 Mule Creek 40 60 39 70 / 20 10 0 0 Faywood 41 63 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 45 69 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 46 69 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 46 69 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 43 64 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for TXZ055-056. NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ112. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz