Expires:No;;353723 FXUS64 KTSA 251541 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1041 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1033 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms has decreased this morning, at least for now. Meso analysis shows frontal zone continues to very slowly lift northeast, but should remain a presence across northwest AR into far northeast OK for much of today as renewed precip across SW MO and SE KS likely reinforces its postilion. There also remains some subtle shortwave energy that could enhance renewed development north of the boundary into this afternoon, though overall coverage should be less than what was observed earlier this morning. Forecast update will reflect slightly reduced POPs this morning outside of northwest AR and northeast corner of OK. Temperatures in areas that remain north of the boundary through the day may struggle to reach forecast highs, but a late rally remains possible. Additional forecast update will be out shortly. 12z data coning in so far does lend some increased confidence in a potentially severe linear complex of storms impacting parts of eastern OK, primarily after 09z. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Scattered strong thunderstorms have develop early this morning across portions of northeast Oklahoma. Elevated instability around 1500 J/kg, coupled with deep layer at 40 knots, will support marginally severe hail through the morning hours. Some potential for storms to train over the same locations, so a few swaths of heavier rainfall will be possible. Antecedent soil conditions are fairly dry given the lack of rainfall over the past 2 weeks, so flooding initially will not be a concern. Initial upper level storm system will lift into the central Plains tonight. Expect strong to severe storms to develop west of the area this evening and begin to move into eastern Oklahoma late tonight. Although surface based instability (1500 J/kg) will not maximized, strong kinematics are forecast with 0-1 km shear in the 30-35 knots. This environment will support a limited threat for a brief tornado or two, but the main concern will likely be damaging wind gusts in the stronger bow segments along with heavy rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Severe threat will likely continue Friday morning as scattered thunderstorms move across the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in association with 90kt upper jet streak lifting into area from the southwest. Still some uncertainty regarding evolution of storms Friday afternoon. Depending on how much heating occurs, could see an uptick in severe storms across southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas Friday afternoon. Although a very unstable air-mass will redevelop across eastern Oklahoma behind the earlier convection, weak forcing along dry line/Pacific front may not be sufficient for additional thunderstorm development. Any severe threat will be highly conditional, but with that said, the overall environment would be very favorable a discrete supercell or two. Should be a lull in the weather Friday night ahead of secondary and more potent storm system Saturday. As upper low lifts into the central Plains Saturday afternoon a very unstable air-mass is expected to develop west of the area as dry line moves through western Oklahoma. Although timing is always a little uncertain this far in advance, including any inhibiting mesoscale features, it appears likely that a higher end severe weather event will occur with storms initially developing west of the area. Main severe threat will again primarily occur Saturday night as a broken line of severe storms move into northeast Oklahoma. Environment will remain conducive for severe weather with moderate surface based instability. Very strong wind fields, including the potential for backed low level winds, may support a few tornadoes, although damaging winds will again be the main threat. Severe threat should transition to flooding concerns late Saturday night into Sunday morning. PWATS in the 1.50-1.75 inch range will produce torrential rain in the stronger storms, which will likely cause localized flash flooding, especially in areas with earlier rainfall. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the severe/heavy rainfall threat will continue on Sunday across SE OK/NW AR as main upper trough axis swings through during the day. Weak frontal boundary will hopefully push south into the ArkLaTx by Monday morning with thunderstorm chances ending, at least in the short term. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 649 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Scattered to broken MVFR to low end VFR ceilings are expected across the majority of the CWA this morning as scattered showers/storms move through the region. Ceilings this afternoon are forecast to lift back to VFR for KMLC/KFSM and could reach into northeast Oklahoma for a period...while far northwest Arkansas remains mainly MVFR ceilings. During the evening hours...MVFR ceilings are forecast to spread back over the CWA and remain through the end of the TAF period. Additional shower/storm chances increase again this evening and become likely overnight tonight for much of the CWA with storms approaching from the west. Within these late period storms...gusty to strong winds could be possible. Winds through the period start out southeast and increase in intensity this afternoon and remain breezy/gusty overnight. The exception is KFSM where more easterly winds should remain common. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 73 64 81 67 / 50 90 70 10 FSM 71 63 77 68 / 60 50 90 50 MLC 79 66 79 67 / 20 80 90 30 BVO 71 60 82 63 / 70 90 70 10 FYV 67 58 73 63 / 80 50 90 50 BYV 62 55 74 64 / 80 50 90 50 MKO 72 62 77 66 / 30 80 90 20 MIO 65 59 76 65 / 80 80 90 20 F10 77 64 80 67 / 20 90 80 20 HHW 78 66 75 66 / 10 50 90 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...20