Expires:No;;483457
FZUS54 KMOB 082151
CWFMOB

AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2015

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TODAY WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING MOVING TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN IS
IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD MOSTLY OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY STRETCHING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PARTS OF MS...AL AND GA...LIKELY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST AREAS IN THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY ON WED.
WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN EXPECTED FOR WED WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES DURING THE
DAY OCCURRING MAINLY OVER EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OR GENERALLY WELL NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS REASONING WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 0.75
INCHES THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING LATE TODAY CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE. 

AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LATEST TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT LEANING TOWARDS OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
WED AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BETTER CLOUDS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
ON WED COULD HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON WED HIGHS. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OR ALL AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE RESULTING
IN LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WITH A
FEW AREAS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S...AND
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE  

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH
JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND WARM WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY (MID AND UPPER 70S) AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE MODELS
TRY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA IN THE INCREASING WARM
AIR ADVECTION...HOWEVER WE WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS THE
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN JUST INCREASING
CLOUDS. /13

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WHICH WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS THIS LATE THIS WEEKEND.
TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS. THE GFS
REMAINS WEAKER...AS IT EJECTS MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS NORTH OF
THE AREA AND MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE EURO DIGS A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A SLOWER MOTION WITH THE EURO MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE EURO SOLUTION
WOULD ALSO FAVOR A BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG OR POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND AWAIT
BETTER AGREEMENT. ONCE THE SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS. /13

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION AND NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      47  71  54  71 /   0   0   0   0 
PENSACOLA   50  71  55  71 /   0   0   0  10 
DESTIN      52  70  57  71 /   0   0   0   0 
EVERGREEN   42  71  50  72 /   0   0   0   0 
WAYNESBORO  44  70  49  70 /   0   0   0   0 
CAMDEN      41  70  50  72 /   0   0   0   0 
CRESTVIEW   36  72  50  73 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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