Expires:No;;132209
FPUS51 KCTP 140249
ZFPCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1049 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL COVER THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH 
TUESDAY. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING 
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT 
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND DURING THE MIDDLE 
OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES 
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE TO
MAINTAIN MAINLY SKIES CLEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NW WINDS
WILL STEADILY DIMINISH...AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
COULD EVEN GO CALM IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT THE PREDAWN HOURS.
A VEIL OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL STREAK SE FROM THE GLAKES AT 40
KT OVERNIGHT AND OVERPSREAD THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA BY
07Z...REACHING THE SUSQ VALLEY SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS
CLOUD SHIELD WILL HAVE MINIMAL AFFECT ON LOWS...BUT COULD ADD A
DEG OR TWO TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LOWS TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW RECORDS FOR 14 MAY...NOT TO
MENTION WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS AREAS OF
THE STATE WHERE THE OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON BEGAN 2-4 WEEKS AGO.
TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO OR VERY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK OVER 
THE SE VALLEYS - BUT MOST OF THAT AREA WILL HANG OUT JUST ABOVE FZG. 
A FROST ADVY IS IN EFFECT THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL 
HIT/SMASH-THOUGH THE FZG MARK. SO A FREEZE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR 
THE CENTRAL MTS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE ON FLAGS AND TEMP 
RECORDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE NEAR-RECORD COLD START TO THE DAY...THE EARLY SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WELL...BUT THEY WILL NEVER GET BACK TO
NORMAL MAXES WITH HIGH/MID CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE NW. THE CLOUDS
WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT SLIDING IN
FROM THE WEST. MAXES WILL STICK ABOUT 10-15F BELOW NORMALS.
GUIDANCE GENERATES ENOUGH LIFT TO MAKE LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER
MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS IN THE EVENING THEN OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...TIMING/PLACEMENT IN QUESTION. WILL KEEP POPS
TO CHCS. THE CLOUDS MOVING IN AND LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WILL
STAY AROUND ALL NIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPS TUES NIGHT MUCH
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY COLD TROUGH WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY WED...
REPLACED BY A FLATTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH MILDER PATTERN.
THIS WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...AND AGAIN
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH MID LEVEL JET WILL CROSS GLAKES AND TRACK
NORTH OF PA FOR WED-THU. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS PA ON
WED AS SURGE OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVES IN...AND THIS WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. TIMING LOOKS TO BE EARLY WED ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT SPREADING TO ENTIRE CWA LATER WED INTO THU AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT GET STRETCHED E-W ACROSS PA. MODEL CAPE
NOTICEABLY LESS DURING THAT PERIOD TODAY THAN IT WAS IN PREV
RUNS...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF SCT TSTMS IN FCST. HIGHS WED
WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER...RANGING FROM 10-20F WARMER THAN TUES.
THU HIGHS WILL PUSH SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE SOUTH...WITH
READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER. 
THE E-W STRETCHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT...AND LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF MASON/DIXON LINE FOR FRI/SAT...BRINGING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CWA WITH JUST A LOW RISK FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH AND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTH.
LINGERING BOUNDARY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AGAIN BY LATE
WEEKEND...AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH PROGRESSES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BEFORE SLOWING OVER THE
GLAKES. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE AS PERSISTENT SW
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH /AND THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/...BRINGING BEGINNINGS OF ANOTHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER. SCT SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERY WEATHER MON AND INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATL LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF CU ACROSS
CENTRAL PA WITH BASES BTWN 5-7KFT. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET AND A NEAR CERTAINTY
OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH AN AFTN SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRY AIR AT LOW
LVLS WILL PRECLUDE ANYTHING BUT VFR CONDS THROUGH TUE EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS AT BFD. SCT TSRA IMPACTS POSS. 
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. 
SAT...ISOLATED PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINS FOR TUESDAY MORNING ARE IN JEOPARDY ESP AT MDT- 
IPT- 28 IN 1996 
MDT- 34 IN 1996 /ALL-TIME LOW FOR MAY IS 31F ON MAY 11 1966/
THE GROWING SEASON DOES NOT START IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA
UNTIL MAY 20TH. SO FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR
THAT AREA UNTIL THAT DATE. A MAP OF THE BEGINNING DATES OF THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM IN THE SPRING ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE.
THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA IS INTO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING
SEASON...SO FROST FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NOW UNTIL THE
AUTUMN FOR THAT AREA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ019-
025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-058.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ056-057-
059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
CLIMATE...LAMBERT