Expires:No;;689042 FPUS52 KKEY 090808 ZFPKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 405 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOCAL RADARS ONLY DETECTING A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES NEAR THE MIDDLE KEYS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SURFACE WISE, A TWO PRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS ALIGNED OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND OF CUBA. ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT, EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM 7 TO 13 KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... A LOW AND MID LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND EXTEND THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE REACHING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SUNSHINE STATE BY LATE THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE MIGRATORY ANTICYCLONE, AN INCREASING AND DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. DESPITE AN ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT, AMPLE MOISTURE FLUX WILL PROMOTE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S UNDER MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION, AS A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL UNDULATION PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID, A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB TO PROMPT LOW CHANCE CLIMO POPS TO BE RETAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES. && .MARINE... LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A SUBTLE WIND INCREASE OVERSPREADS OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST EXPECTED ON THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. BUT AT THIS TIME, NO ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED BUT AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS WEEK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUD LINES MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT EITHER TERMINAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS. && .CLIMATE... IN 1957, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 72F WAS LAST RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 90 84 90 84 / 30 20 20 20 MARATHON 91 83 91 84 / 30 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/....APA AVIATION/NOWCASTS/.....AD VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST