Expires:No;;443406 WTPA45 PHFO 062034 TCDCP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 26 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 06 2023 Well-organized and compact Dora remains a very symmetric hurricane as it begins its journey into the central Pacific. A well defined clear eye with some marginal warming of cloud tops have been observed on satellite over the last couple of hours. Dvorak-based intensity estimates from PHFO, JTWC and SAB came in at 6.5, continuing to support an initial intensity around 120 kt. Recent cloud top warming could suggest a weakening trend, but given Dora's recent history of being stronger than the forecast, combined with no scatterometer or other observations to the contrary, will maintain the 120 kt intensity with this package. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next several days as Dora moves over relatively warm water in a negligible wind shear environment. Drier air to the north of the system is expected to be ingested into the system within a few days and will help to weaken the storm midweek. The intensity models are in agreement with a weakening trend through the week, however they vary with regards to how much weakening occurs as the week progresses. The CPHC intensity forecast follows the NHC trend in the last few advisory packages of being a little above the model consensus. Dora is expected to move to the west along the southern edge of the ridge to the north. On this track, Dora will pass well south of Hawaii over the next several days. The model track guidance remains very tightly clustered through the week, thus the forecast track remains very close to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 12.8N 142.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 12.8N 145.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 12.6N 148.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 12.4N 160.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 12.7N 163.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 13.9N 171.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 15.8N 178.1W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Wroe/M Ballard