AGUS74 KFWR 281658 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1054 AM CST WED FEB 28 2018 VALID FEBRUARY 28 THROUGH MARCH 5 ...THIS PRODUCT WILL NO LONGER BE GENERATED AFTER TODAY... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Another day of significant precipitation is expected for locations of North and East Texas through early tomorrow. Most areas of the WGRFC are already being impacted this morning from numerous showers continuing to move off towards the north east. This activity is producing rainfall amounts of 0.50 inch or less per hour. Increases in moisture and instability will allow some strong storms to develop during the afternoon and evening hours, as an upper disturbance and dryline approach the area from the west. Significant amounts of 1-2 inches are possible over north and east Texas, which could cause some additional minor rises on some smaller basins of the Sabine, Neches and Trinity rivers. Amounts of over 2 inches are possible across areas of extreme northeast Texas, mainly where the greatest instability and moisture is available. Expect a brief break tomorrow. Rainfall chances increase next week. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of up to 2.00 inch are forecast for portions of North and East Texas. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of Southeast Texas. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Soils are saturated and any future rainfall today will generate runoff. With current forecast rainfall some of the upper Trinity sites may raise back into action and minor flooding. A flood wave is moving down the Trinity and has crested at Trinidad, and will move to Long Lake area next which is on the rise towards minor flood. Downstream, moderate flooding is expected for Liberty, with higher flows expected to continue at least through the week and probably into next week as Lake Livingston keeps passing the wave moving through. The rain over the next few days will slow the recessions by about a day or so keeping flood levels longer into the week. ...Neches Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Widespread minor flooding continues to occur over the entire Neches River basin with moderate flooding forecast at some locations in the lower basin. ...Sabine Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... The most significant flooding, with widespread moderate flooding is occurring or forecast on the mainstem Sabine and tributaries downstream of Toledo Bend Reservoir. Bayou Anacoco (RPIL1) and the Sabine River at Bon Weir (BWRT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2) are forecast to reach moderate flood stage during this week. Spillway gates are open at Toledo Bend, resulting in a release near 35,425 cfs. Upstream of the lake, only action stage is expected on the Sabine River at Logansport (LPTL1), but the rest of the Sabine is in minor or moderate flood up as far as Mineola (MLAT2). Additional rainfall is expected in the headwaters pushing streams back into minor flood levels. ...San Jacinto Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Recent heavy rainfall has pushed portions of the West Fork and East Fork of the San Jacinto River basin into action stage and minor flood. The East Fork San Jacinto River near New Caney (NCET2) is the only site currently in flood. All others are below flood stage and this trend is expected to continue. ...San Bernard Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Rainfall pushed the San Bernard near East Bernard (EBBT2) into action stage criteria over the next couple of days. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Additional rain is forecast for portions of eastern Texas which may see renewed rises due to saturated soils. Rivers in the west will remain in baseflow. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. NOTE - This product will no longer be generated after today. All information in this product can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/quick_briefing For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide MCCANTS $$