AXAU21 ABRF 120134
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0134 UTC 12/04/2024
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.9S
Longitude: 156.1E
Location Accuracy: within 45nm (85 km)
Movement Towards: northwest (316 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (3 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W1.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm (150 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  12/0600: 14.8S 155.8E:     060 (110):  030  (055): 1004
+12:  12/1200: 14.5S 155.3E:     065 (125):  030  (055): 1005
+18:  12/1800: 14.1S 154.6E:     070 (135):  030  (055): 1005
+24:  13/0000: 13.8S 154.0E:     080 (145):  025  (045): 1008
+36:  13/1200: 13.1S 152.1E:     095 (175):  025  (045): 1008
+48:  14/0000:             :              :            :     
+60:  14/1200:             :              :            :     
+72:  15/0000:             :              :            :     
+96:  16/0000:             :              :            :     
+120: 17/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul has weakened to be a tropical low. 

Ex-TC Paul was located using animated VIS imagery but with low confidence.
Gales have been confined to within 30nm of the centre in only the southwest
quadrant based on SMOS and SMAP information received around 19UTC. An ASCAT
pass at 2240 UTC arrived after analysis was completed and confirms strongest
winds are confined to the southwest quadrant and may already be below gale
force intensity.

The intensity of 35 knots is based on previous SMOS and SMAP information, and
sits within the range of objective aids. Dvorak curved band analysis has become
very challenging due to the rapid break down of the system, and a significant
reduction of curvature, but on average over the last 3 hours a wrap of 0.3
gives a DT of 2.0. MET is 2.0 with a rapid weakening trend as deep convection
becomes mostly confined to the southeast of the centre. No adjustment to MET.
FT=2.0 with CI held higher at 2.5. Objective aids (1-minute):  ADT 37kn; AiDT
34kn; DPRINT 30kn; SATCON 46kn. ADT RawT is 2.3 

Ex-TC Paul remains in a region of high SSTs (29.5-30C) however environmental
conditions are otherwise unfavourable for development. Wind shear at 0000 UTC
was analysed as 21 kt from the NW (from CIMSS) and dry air is encroaching.
Further weakening is expected on Friday before the system dissipates by Sunday.
 

Ex-TC Paul has been slow moving with the influence of a mid-level ridge to the
northeast and mid-level trough. The low level ridge to the west southwest is
expected to become more dominant throughout Friday and a northwest track is
expected. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.