AXPZ20 KNHC 140834
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue May 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of NW Costa Rica near
10N86W to 11N93W to 07N120W. The ITCZ continues from 07N120W to 
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is observed e OF 80W, and from 05N to 15N between 86W and 111W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters off the Baja
California peninsula southward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Moderate to fresh gap winds are observed in the northern
Gulf of California with light to gentle winds over the southern 
Gulf. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters 
off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the open waters off
Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds, pulsing to locally
fresh each night, and moderate seas or less, will persist off
the Baja California waters through this week and into the
upcoming weekend. Pulsing of moderate to locally fresh gap winds
will push through the mountain passages of Baja California into
the Gulf of California at night through much of the week. Gentle
to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected
elsewhere across the open offshore waters of Mexico through late
this week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds are over the waters S of the monsoon
trough, with light to gentle winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are forecast
south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of
the monsoon trough, through the end of the week. Southerly swell
moving through the regional waters will support seas of 5-6 ft 
through the forecast period. An area of low pressure is forecast 
to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by mid to late week and 
move west-northwestward. This will increase the winds and seas in
the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador toward the end 
of the week and into the upcoming weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting moderate tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near
20N and W of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 6-8 ft range.
Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere N of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle 
to locally moderate winds are S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough where 
seas are in the 5-7 ft range. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and 
moderate seas are expected in the trade wind zone N of the ITCZ 
to near 20N and W of 120W through the forecast period. An area of
low pressure may form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by mid to
late week and move west-northwestward. This will increase winds 
and seas in the eastern part of the basin toward the end of the 
week into the upcoming weekend.

$$
AL