AXUS45 KGGW 190928
MISGGW
FXUS65 KGGW 190928
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
328 AM MDT SAT OCT 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
OVERALL LONG-WAVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS REMAINS QUITE
STEADY. TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. ANALYSIS OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES REVEAL SOME FINER DETAILS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS ON WINDS SATURDAY MID-DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20
KTS WILL BE LIKELY...MAYBE DUE TO A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND A QUICKLY DESCENDING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
SASKATCHEWAN. CHOSE TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MINOR AND SCATTERED AT BEST. THANKS TO A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH RIDING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEL QPF CONSENSUS SEEMS TO SHOW
MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE OF PRECIP OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. TRIED
TO INDICATE MORE SPRINKLES IN THESE CASES AND INCREASE TO SLIGHT
CHANCES WHERE BEST CONSENSUS QPF ALIGNMENT WAS FOUND.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO CLEAR OUT ASIDE
FROM A LONE LINEAR BAND OF PRECIP NNW TO SSE THROUGH OUR CWA
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE THAWING SIDE EXCEPT FOR BRIEF OVERNIGHT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF FLURRIES. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE PERIOD THIS
PATTERN SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING TO THE ROCKIES
AND THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING TO LABRADOR. NORTHERLY FLOW INTO
EASTERN MONTANA BACKS TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ABOUT WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FEW DEGREE
DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING LOWERING CEILINGS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT 
PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW