FGUS61 KTAR 032155 ESGBUF RIVER STAGE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TAUNTON, MA ...CONTINGENCY FORECAST... THIS PRODUCT FOR INTERNAL NWS USE ONLY 0450 PM EST MON MAR 03 2008 : :THIS IS A NWS GUIDANCE PRODUCT FROM THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER. :OFFICIAL FORECASTS/WARNINGS ARE ISSUED ONLY BY VARIOUS LOCAL NWS OFFICES. :BELOW ARE 6-HOURLY FORECASTS. : : :************************************************************************* :GENESEE RVR AT WELLSVILLE NY :FLOOD STAGE 11.0 : :LATEST STAGE 5.0 FT AT 1545 EST ON 0303 :CREST VALUE OF 10.4 FOUND FOR WLLN6 AT 07E ON 0305. .ER WLLN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 5.5/ 6.4 .E2 :0304:/ 7.1/ 7.2/ 6.9/ 7.9 .E3 :0305:/ 10.4/ 10.3/ 8.7/ 7.9 .E4 :0306:/ 7.3/ 6.9/ 6.7/ 6.4 .E5 :0307:/ 6.3/ 6.2/ 6.1/ 6.0 .E6 :0308:/ 5.9 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.09/0.22/0.41/0.60/0.77/0.21/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :GENESEE RVR AT PORTAGEVILLE NY :FLOOD STAGE 19.0 : :LATEST STAGE 9.5 FT AT 1600 EST ON 0303 .ER PRTN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 9.9/ 11.0 .E2 :0304:/ 12.7/ 15.0/ 15.6/ 15.0 .E3 :0305:/ 15.8/ 16.9/ 16.5/ 15.2 .E4 :0306:/ 14.0/ 13.2/ 12.6/ 12.1 .E5 :0307:/ 11.8/ 11.6/ 11.4/ 11.2 .E6 :0308:/ 11.1 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.12/0.33/0.27/0.42/0.60/0.18/0.01/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :GENESEE AT MT MORRIS DAM : : :LATEST POOL ELEVATION 595.2 FT AT 1600 EST ON 0303 .ER MMDN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HPIFF/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 593.6/ 600.9 .E2 :0304:/ 609.0/ 618.0/ 626.8/ 633.7 .E3 :0305:/ 639.1/ 644.1/ 648.8/ 652.6 .E4 :0306:/ 655.3/ 657.2/ 658.5/ 659.3 .E5 :0307:/ 659.8/ 660.1/ 660.2/ 660.1 .E6 :0308:/ 659.9 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.01/0.01/0.01/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.12/0.35/0.18/0.30/0.48/0.21/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :GENESEE AT AVON NY :FLOOD STAGE 33.0 : :LATEST STAGE 18.4 FT AT 1600 EST ON 0303 .ER AVON6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 17.8/ 19.1 .E2 :0304:/ 21.3/ 23.5/ 25.1/ 25.5 .E3 :0305:/ 25.4/ 25.7/ 26.2/ 26.7 .E4 :0306:/ 26.9/ 27.1/ 27.2/ 27.3 .E5 :0307:/ 27.3/ 27.4/ 27.4/ 27.4 .E6 :0308:/ 27.4 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.01/0.01/0.01/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.12/0.33/0.15/0.25/0.46/0.24/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :OATKA CR AT GARBUTT :FLOOD STAGE 6.0 : :LATEST STAGE 3.0 FT AT 1600 EST ON 0303 :CREST VALUE OF 5.3 FOUND FOR GRBN6 AT 07E ON 0305. .ER GRBN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 3.1/ 3.4 .E2 :0304:/ 3.9/ 4.4/ 4.9/ 5.2 .E3 :0305:/ 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.1/ 5.0 .E4 :0306:/ 4.8/ 4.6/ 4.4/ 4.2 .E5 :0307:/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.8 .E6 :0308:/ 3.7 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.01/0.01/0.01/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.13/0.32/0.13/0.22/0.45/0.24/0.02/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE NY :FLOOD STAGE 6.0 : :LATEST STAGE 2.5 FT AT 1600 EST ON 0303 .ER CHRN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 2.5/ 2.9 .E2 :0304:/ 3.4/ 3.8/ 3.9/ 4.0 .E3 :0305:/ 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.2 .E4 :0306:/ 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.6 .E5 :0307:/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 .E6 :0308:/ 2.5 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.13/0.28/0.09/0.15/0.42/0.28/0.03/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :GENESEE RIVER AT ROCHESTER NY :FLOOD STAGE 15.0 : :LATEST STAGE 4.9 FT AT 0700 EST ON 0303 .ER RHRN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 5.2/ 5.7 .E2 :0304:/ 6.6/ 7.7/ 8.8/ 9.6 .E3 :0305:/ 9.8/ 9.8/ 9.8/ 9.8 .E4 :0306:/ 9.7/ 9.6/ 9.5/ 9.5 .E5 :0307:/ 9.4/ 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.3 .E6 :0308:/ 9.2 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.02/0.02/0.02/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.11/0.29/0.11/0.18/0.43/0.30/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :HONEOYE CREEK AT HONEOYE FALLS NY :FLOOD STAGE 4.5 : :LATEST STAGE 1.3 FT AT 1600 EST ON 0303 :CREST VALUE OF 2.7 FOUND FOR HNYN6 AT 19E ON 0304. :CREST VALUE OF 2.2 FOUND FOR HNYN6 AT 01E ON 0306. :CREST VALUE OF 1.9 FOUND FOR HNYN6 AT 13E ON 0307. .ER HNYN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 1.5/ 2.0 .E2 :0304:/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.6 .E3 :0305:/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2 .E4 :0306:/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.9 .E5 :0307:/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9 .E6 :0308:/ 1.8 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.01/0.01/0.01/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.10/0.34/0.18/0.29/0.48/0.25/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :CANANDAIGUA LAKE AT CANANDAIGUA NY : : :LATEST ESTIMATED POOL ELEVATION 688.0 FT AT 1300 EST ON 0303 .ER CNDN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HPIFF/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 688.0/ 688.1 .E2 :0304:/ 688.1/ 688.2/ 688.3/ 688.4 .E3 :0305:/ 688.4/ 688.5/ 688.5/ 688.5 .E4 :0306:/ 688.6/ 688.6/ 688.6/ 688.6 .E5 :0307:/ 688.6/ 688.6/ 688.6/ 688.6 .E6 :0308:/ 688.6 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.09/0.32/0.19/0.31/0.49/0.27/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :CANANDAIGUA OUTLET AT CHAPIN NY : : :LATEST STAGE 4.7 FT AT 1500 EST ON 0303 .ER CPNN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 4.6/ 4.6 .E2 :0304:/ 4.7/ 4.8/ 4.9/ 4.9 .E3 :0305:/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0 .E4 :0306:/ 5.0/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1 .E5 :0307:/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1 .E6 :0308:/ 5.1 :************************************************************************* :BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE NY :FLOOD STAGE 10.0 : :LATEST STAGE 4.8 FT AT 1630 EST ON 0303 .ER BOON6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 4.5/ 4.5 .E2 :0304:/ 4.6/ 4.8/ 5.2/ 5.6 .E3 :0305:/ 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.7/ 5.5 .E4 :0306:/ 5.3/ 5.2/ 5.1/ 5.0 .E5 :0307:/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.8 .E6 :0308:/ 4.8 :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.10/0.16/0.11/0.16/0.40/0.66/0.06/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :BLACK RIVER AT WATERTOWN NY :FLOOD STAGE 10.0 : :LATEST STAGE 4.4 FT AT 1345 EST ON 0303 .ER ARTN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 4.2/ 4.3 .E2 :0304:/ 4.4/ 4.7/ 5.0/ 5.3 .E3 :0305:/ 5.5/ 5.7/ 5.8/ 5.9 .E4 :0306:/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0 .E5 :0307:/ 6.0/ 5.9/ 5.8/ 5.7 .E6 :0308:/ 5.6 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.02/0.02/0.02/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.14/0.18/0.07/0.09/0.37/0.63/0.03/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA NY :FLOOD STAGE 9.0 : :LATEST STAGE 2.3 FT AT 1600 EST ON 0303 .ER BTVN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 2.7/ 3.4 .E2 :0304:/ 4.3/ 5.4/ 6.1/ 6.3 .E3 :0305:/ 6.1/ 5.6/ 5.2/ 4.7 .E4 :0306:/ 4.3/ 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.6 .E5 :0307:/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.1 .E6 :0308:/ 3.0 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.14/0.33/0.12/0.21/0.47/0.23/0.04/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS NY :FLOOD STAGE 12.0 : :LATEST STAGE 2.4 FT AT 1530 EST ON 0303 .ER RAPN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 2.3/ 2.6 .E2 :0304:/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.5/ 4.1 .E3 :0305:/ 4.8/ 5.7/ 6.6/ 7.4 .E4 :0306:/ 8.0/ 8.2/ 8.1/ 7.8 .E5 :0307:/ 7.3/ 6.7/ 6.1/ 5.6 .E6 :0308:/ 5.0 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.15/0.28/0.08/0.14/0.45/0.25/0.05/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA NY :FLOOD STAGE 10.0 : :LATEST STAGE 2.3 FT AT 1605 EST ON 0303 .ER GOWN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 4.5/ 6.1 .E2 :0304:/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 6.2/ 5.4 .E3 :0305:/ 5.0/ 4.7/ 4.2/ 3.7 .E4 :0306:/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.1 .E5 :0307:/ 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.6/ 2.5 .E6 :0308:/ 2.5 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.16/0.36/0.20/0.31/0.59/0.17/0.04/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :BUFFALO CREEK AT GARDENVILLE NY :FLOOD STAGE 7.0 : :LATEST STAGE 2.2 FT AT 1615 EST ON 0303 .ER GDVN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 3.0/ 3.8 .E2 :0304:/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 3.6/ 3.0 .E3 :0305:/ 2.7/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 2.0 .E4 :0306:/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.6 .E5 :0307:/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4 .E6 :0308:/ 1.4 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.15/0.35/0.13/0.22/0.51/0.21/0.04/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :CAYUGA CREEK AT LANCASTER NY :FLOOD STAGE 8.0 : :LATEST STAGE 4.9 FT AT 1630 EST ON 0303 .ER LCSN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 5.7/ 6.7 .E2 :0304:/ 6.8/ 6.6/ 5.7/ 5.3 .E3 :0305:/ 5.1/ 4.9/ 4.7/ 4.6 .E4 :0306:/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.3 .E5 :0307:/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.1 .E6 :0308:/ 4.1 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.15/0.33/0.11/0.19/0.49/0.22/0.05/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :CAZENOVIA CREEK AT EBENEZER NY :FLOOD STAGE 10.0 : :LATEST STAGE 5.3 FT AT 1545 EST ON 0303 .ER EBZN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 4.2/ 6.9 .E2 :0304:/ 7.6/ 5.9/ 5.5/ 5.1 .E3 :0305:/ 4.7/ 4.4/ 4.1/ 3.9 .E4 :0306:/ 3.7/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.2 .E5 :0307:/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.9 .E6 :0308:/ 2.9 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.16/0.36/0.14/0.23/0.54/0.19/0.04/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :************************************************************************* :ELLICOTT CREEK AT WILLIAMSVILLE NY :FLOOD STAGE 8.0 : :LATEST STAGE 3.2 FT AT 1545 EST ON 0303 .ER WILN6 20080303 E DC200803031650/DH19/HGIC1/DIH6 :QPF FCST 7AM 1PM 7PM 1AM .E1 :0303: :: / 3.1/ 4.4 .E2 :0304:/ 5.4/ 5.6/ 5.2/ 4.8 .E3 :0305:/ 4.5/ 4.2/ 3.9/ 3.7 .E4 :0306:/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.1/ 3.0 .E5 :0307:/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.7 .E6 :0308:/ 2.6 :LOCAL MAP - 4 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 01PM EST ON 0303. : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :LOCAL QPF - 19 6 HR PDS - ENDING AT 07AM EST ON 0308. : 0.00/0.15/0.30/0.09/0.15/0.47/0.23/0.05/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ : 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00/ :******************************************************************** :COMMENT : :CONTINGENCY FORECAST FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF BUFFALO LATE :TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL KEPT BUFFALO AREA BELOW FREEZING :DURING THE HEART OF THE EVENT SO THE SPIKES YOU SEE INITIALLY ARE :DUE PRIMARILY TO SNOWMELT. : :FOR SITUATIONAL AWARENESS/INTERNAL NWS USE ONLY : :END/HORWOOD $$ :NERFC :...END OF MESSAGE...