FGUS63 KKRF 231424 ESGELK LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 346 PM CDT MON APR 22 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 04/27/2024 - 07/26/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :ELKHORN R AT EWING NE 1N EWIN1 9.0 10.0 12.0 6 8 5 <5 <5 <5 :ELKHORN R AT NELIGH NE #2 NLIN1 11.0 12.0 14.0 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :ELKHORN R AT NORFOLK NE 2SSW NFKN1 12.0 13.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :N FK ELKHORN R AT PIERCE NE 2SE PRCN1 12.0 14.0 16.0 6 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :ELKHORN R AT PILGER NE PLGN1 12.0 15.0 17.0 5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :ELKHORN R AT WEST POINT NE 1W WPNN1 12.0 16.0 17.0 12 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :ELKHORN R AT WINSLOW NE 2E WLON1 17.0 20.0 23.0 17 15 6 7 <5 <5 :LOGAN CR AT UEHLING NE 2SW UEHN1 18.0 19.0 21.0 6 6 6 6 5 6 :MAPLE CR AT NICKERSON NE 4NW NKRN1 11.5 13.0 17.0 13 16 12 14 <5 8 :ELKHORN R AT WATERLOO NE WTRN1 14.0 18.0 21.0 21 20 <5 5 <5 <5 :PLATTE R NORTH CHANNEL AT BRADY NE CH 1 BDYN1 7.5 9.0 11.0 33 41 16 16 <5 11 :PLATTE RIVER NEAR DARR AT DARR NE 4SSE DARN1 11.5 12.5 13.0 22 37 13 23 11 16 :PLATTE R AT OVERTON NE 3W OVTN1 7.5 12.0 14.0 18 31 <5 6 <5 <5 :PLATTE R AT KEARNEY NE 3S KEAN1 7.0 8.0 9.0 10 18 8 11 7 9 :WOOD R AT GIBBON NE 3ENE GBBN1 15.0 16.0 16.5 23 33 19 32 14 26 :WOOD R AT ALDA 1SW ALDN1 10.0 11.0 12.2 32 38 27 34 17 31 :WOOD R DIVERSION AT GRAND ISLAND NE GIDN1 19.5 20.5 21.5 11 21 9 13 8 12 :PLATTE R AT GRAND ISLAND NE 5SE GRIN1 6.5 7.0 7.5 18 32 12 25 9 18 :PLATTE R AT DUNCAN NE 2S DNCN1 8.0 9.0 10.0 11 16 9 14 8 11 :SHELL CR AT COLUMBUS NE 8NE CLBN1 30.0 31.0 32.0 8 8 6 6 5 5 :PLATTE R AT NORTH BEND NE NBDN1 8.0 10.0 11.5 16 22 <5 <5 <5 <5 :PLATTE R AT LESHARA NE 1SE LESN1 8.0 10.0 12.0 16 23 <5 <5 <5 <5 :PLATTE R AT ASHLAND NE 3NE ASLN1 20.0 22.0 23.5 15 24 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SALT CR AT ROCA NE ROCN1 19.0 21.5 23.0 9 17 7 7 <5 <5 :SALT CR AT LINCOLN NE 27TH ST LCNN1 20.5 26.5 29.0 9 9 7 7 5 6 :SALT CR AT GREENWOOD NE 1W GRNN1 20.0 24.0 31.0 21 36 10 10 <5 <5 :WAHOO CR AT ITHACA NE ITHN1 19.0 20.5 23.0 35 59 34 57 <5 <5 :SALT CR AT ASHLAND NE ASTN1 20.0 21.0 26.0 20 43 11 27 <5 <5 :PLATTE R AT LOUISVILLE NE LOUN1 9.0 11.0 12.0 23 34 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0427 Z DH12 /DC2404221546/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 04/27/2024 - 07/26/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :ELKHORN R EWIN1 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.7/ 5.7/ 6.4/ 8.3/ 9.9 NLIN1 3.4/ 4.3/ 5.2/ 7.0/ 7.7/ 9.5/ 11.1 NFKN1 3.4/ 3.7/ 4.7/ 5.7/ 6.5/ 7.6/ 10.4 :N FK ELKHORN R PRCN1 3.5/ 3.7/ 4.9/ 6.5/ 8.0/ 10.8/ 12.1 :ELKHORN R PLGN1 7.4/ 7.7/ 8.6/ 9.4/ 9.6/ 11.2/ 12.1 WPNN1 4.5/ 4.6/ 6.6/ 8.0/ 9.3/ 12.6/ 13.4 WLON1 11.0/ 11.5/ 12.4/ 13.3/ 15.7/ 18.2/ 21.1 :LOGAN CR UEHN1 7.0/ 7.0/ 8.3/ 10.7/ 12.8/ 14.9/ 22.2 :MAPLE CR NKRN1 3.5/ 4.8/ 5.7/ 7.0/ 8.4/ 14.4/ 15.4 :ELKHORN R WTRN1 5.9/ 6.5/ 8.1/ 9.3/ 12.5/ 15.5/ 16.7 :PLATTE R NORTH CHANNEL BDYN1 3.7/ 4.1/ 4.3/ 6.1/ 7.8/ 9.9/ 10.9 :PLATTE RIVER NEAR DARR DARN1 6.7/ 7.2/ 7.9/ 10.0/ 11.2/ 13.3/ 15.0 :PLATTE R OVTN1 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.8/ 5.1/ 6.5/ 9.2/ 10.8 KEAN1 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.3/ 4.1/ 5.4/ 6.8/ 10.9 :WOOD R GBBN1 4.1/ 4.2/ 6.1/ 9.9/ 13.0/ 17.7/ 19.0 ALDN1 4.5/ 4.5/ 5.7/ 8.1/ 11.4/ 13.0/ 13.6 :WOOD R DIVERSION GIDN1 10.9/ 10.9/ 12.5/ 14.6/ 16.7/ 19.9/ 23.9 :PLATTE R GRIN1 3.7/ 3.7/ 4.0/ 5.0/ 6.0/ 7.1/ 11.6 DNCN1 3.6/ 3.9/ 4.4/ 5.3/ 6.5/ 8.4/ 11.6 :SHELL CR CLBN1 13.3/ 14.5/ 19.1/ 25.0/ 28.0/ 29.2/ 31.8 :PLATTE R NBDN1 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.9/ 5.8/ 6.6/ 8.6/ 9.1 LESN1 4.6/ 4.7/ 5.5/ 6.5/ 7.1/ 8.5/ 8.9 ASLN1 15.7/ 16.1/ 17.2/ 18.5/ 19.0/ 20.9/ 21.3 :SALT CR ROCN1 1.8/ 2.8/ 3.5/ 5.1/ 13.5/ 18.2/ 22.1 LCNN1 2.6/ 3.4/ 4.7/ 11.6/ 15.5/ 18.8/ 28.8 GRNN1 2.5/ 3.8/ 4.9/ 12.9/ 19.4/ 23.7/ 29.6 :WAHOO CR ITHN1 4.3/ 5.3/ 7.2/ 16.2/ 21.8/ 22.2/ 22.4 :SALT CR ASTN1 7.7/ 8.1/ 10.1/ 15.4/ 18.9/ 21.2/ 22.1 :PLATTE R LOUN1 4.4/ 4.6/ 5.8/ 7.1/ 8.6/ 9.8/ 10.0 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0427 Z DH12 /DC2404221546/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 04/27/2024 - 07/26/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :ELKHORN R EWIN1 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.6/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3 NLIN1 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0 NFKN1 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.4 :N FK ELKHORN R PRCN1 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.1/ 2.1 :ELKHORN R PLGN1 6.8/ 6.7/ 6.5/ 6.4/ 6.3/ 6.1/ 6.0 WPNN1 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.6 WLON1 8.5/ 8.4/ 8.2/ 8.1/ 8.1/ 7.8/ 7.7 :LOGAN CR UEHN1 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.9 :MAPLE CR NKRN1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :ELKHORN R WTRN1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.4/ 1.3 :PLATTE R NORTH CHANNEL BDYN1 1.7/ 1.3/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :PLATTE RIVER NEAR DARR DARN1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0 :PLATTE R OVTN1 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5 KEAN1 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2 :WOOD R GBBN1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1 ALDN1 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.3 :WOOD R DIVERSION GIDN1 10.9/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.8 :PLATTE R GRIN1 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2 DNCN1 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1 :SHELL CR CLBN1 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.6/ 10.6/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5 :PLATTE R NBDN1 2.8/ 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1 LESN1 4.0/ 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.2 ASLN1 14.4/ 14.3/ 14.2/ 14.0/ 13.9/ 13.7/ 13.6 :SALT CR ROCN1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5 LCNN1 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 GRNN1 2.1/ 2.1/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2 :WAHOO CR ITHN1 3.8/ 3.4/ 3.1/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9 :SALT CR ASTN1 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0 :PLATTE R LOUN1 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.2/ 2.2 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$