FGUS63 KKRF 231435 ESGSPL LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 329 PM CDT MON APR 22 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 04/27/2024 - 07/26/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :SOUTH PLATTE R AT SOUTH PLATTE CO SPTC2 7.0 8.5 9.5 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :PLUM CREEK AT SEDALIA CO 1W LOVC2 8.0 10.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BEAR CR AT MORRISON CO MRRC2 9.0 10.0 10.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BEAR CR AT SHERIDAN CO SHRC2 8.0 10.0 10.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SOUTH PLATTE R AT DENVER CO DNVC2 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CLEAR CR AT GOLDEN CO 1WSW GLDC2 8.5 9.5 10.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CLEAR CR AT DERBY CO 2WSW DRBC2 10.5 11.5 12.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SOUTH PLATTE R AT HENDERSON CO HNDC2 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SOUTH PLATTE R AT FORT LUPTON CO 2NNW LUPC2 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :N FK BIG THOMPSON R AT DRAKE CO DKKC2 5.5 6.0 7.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CACHE LA POUDRE R AT FT COLLINS CO 9NW FTDC2 7.5 9.0 10.5 5 8 <5 6 <5 <5 :CACHE LA POUDRE R AT FT COLLINS CO POUC2 10.5 11.5 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :CACHE LA POUDRE R AT GREELEY CO GRPC2 8.0 9.5 10.5 8 12 5 10 <5 7 :SOUTH PLATTE R AT KERSEY CO KERC2 10.0 11.5 13.5 11 13 6 5 <5 <5 :SOUTH PLATTE R AT WELDONA CO WNAC2 10.0 11.0 12.0 7 6 5 5 <5 <5 :SOUTH PLATTE R AT FORT MORGAN CO 1N FOMC2 17.5 19.5 21.5 11 10 6 7 <5 <5 :SOUTH PLATTE R AT BALZAC CO BZNC2 10.0 11.0 12.5 10 9 7 8 <5 6 :SOUTH PLATTE R AT ATWOOD CO 1S ATWC2 11.5 13.0 14.5 8 8 5 7 <5 <5 :SOUTH PLATTE R AT JULESBURG CO CH 2 JULC2 10.0 11.0 12.5 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :SOUTH PLATTE R AT ROSCOE NE 1SE RSON1 9.0 11.0 13.0 20 20 10 9 <5 7 :SOUTH PLATTE R AT NORTH PLATTE NE NO.2 NPSN1 13.0 14.0 15.0 9 9 5 8 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0427 Z DH12 /DC2404221529/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 04/27/2024 - 07/26/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :SOUTH PLATTE R SPTC2 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.7/ 4.0/ 4.4/ 5.1/ 5.8 :PLUM CREEK LOVC2 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.7/ 6.3/ 7.2 :BEAR CR MRRC2 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.9/ 7.0/ 7.2/ 7.4/ 7.5 SHRC2 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 4.0/ 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.0 :SOUTH PLATTE R DNVC2 4.5/ 4.7/ 4.8/ 5.3/ 5.8/ 6.1/ 7.6 :CLEAR CR GLDC2 5.2/ 5.3/ 5.5/ 5.8/ 6.1/ 6.4/ 6.7 DRBC2 4.9/ 5.0/ 5.2/ 5.8/ 6.5/ 6.9/ 7.2 :SOUTH PLATTE R HNDC2 5.1/ 5.3/ 5.7/ 6.3/ 7.1/ 7.6/ 8.5 LUPC2 4.9/ 5.2/ 5.5/ 6.5/ 7.4/ 9.0/ 9.7 :N FK BIG THOMPSON R DKKC2 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.6/ 3.8/ 4.2/ 4.4 :CACHE LA POUDRE R FTDC2 4.2/ 4.4/ 4.7/ 5.0/ 5.5/ 6.6/ 7.5 POUC2 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.5/ 4.2/ 5.0/ 6.3/ 8.0 GRPC2 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.8/ 4.5/ 6.1/ 7.6/ 9.6 :SOUTH PLATTE R KERC2 4.2/ 4.6/ 4.9/ 6.3/ 8.2/ 10.1/ 12.0 WNAC2 3.5/ 3.7/ 4.0/ 5.2/ 7.0/ 9.3/ 11.1 FOMC2 10.4/ 10.7/ 11.0/ 12.3/ 14.4/ 17.9/ 20.2 BZNC2 3.5/ 3.7/ 4.2/ 5.7/ 7.3/ 9.9/ 12.1 ATWC2 4.3/ 4.6/ 5.0/ 6.6/ 8.1/ 10.8/ 12.8 JULC2 4.3/ 5.6/ 6.4/ 7.5/ 8.3/ 9.2/ 9.9 RSON1 3.7/ 4.0/ 5.0/ 7.2/ 8.4/ 10.9/ 12.6 NPSN1 6.9/ 7.0/ 7.6/ 9.5/ 10.5/ 12.7/ 14.1 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0427 Z DH12 /DC2404221529/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 04/27/2024 - 07/26/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :SOUTH PLATTE R SPTC2 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9 :PLUM CREEK LOVC2 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.5 :BEAR CR MRRC2 6.5/ 6.3/ 6.2/ 6.0/ 5.8/ 5.7/ 5.6 SHRC2 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4 :SOUTH PLATTE R DNVC2 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3 :CLEAR CR GLDC2 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.0 DRBC2 3.7/ 3.5/ 2.8/ 2.6/ 2.3/ 2.0/ 2.0 :SOUTH PLATTE R HNDC2 3.9/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6 LUPC2 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2 :N FK BIG THOMPSON R DKKC2 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6 :CACHE LA POUDRE R FTDC2 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3 POUC2 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.5/ 0.1/ 0.0 GRPC2 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7 :SOUTH PLATTE R KERC2 2.9/ 2.5/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0 WNAC2 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 FOMC2 9.4/ 9.3/ 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.2 BZNC2 2.4/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6 ATWC2 3.5/ 2.6/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2 JULC2 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3 RSON1 3.1/ 2.6/ 2.3/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0 NPSN1 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.7 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. .END $$