FGUS63 KMSR 231345 ESGRED RED RIVER OF THE NORTH LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 844 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Wild Rice River ABRN8 20.0 22.0 28.0 25 28 20 17 6 5 :Red River of the North WHNN8 11.0 13.0 15.0 49 62 27 28 5 10 HICN8 30.0 34.0 38.0 13 17 <5 8 <5 <5 FGON8 18.0 25.0 30.0 62 76 21 25 11 17 HILN8 26.0 32.0 37.5 12 23 6 14 <5 6 EGFM5 28.0 40.0 46.0 27 47 <5 16 <5 5 OSLM5 26.0 30.0 36.0 32 57 25 45 <5 9 DRTN8 32.0 38.0 42.0 9 38 <5 22 <5 8 PBNN8 39.0 44.0 49.0 10 43 <5 35 <5 17 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404231344/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Wild Rice River ABRN8 11.3/ 11.3/ 11.8/ 13.6/ 20.1/ 25.2/ 28.4 :Red River of the North WHNN8 7.7/ 7.7/ 8.8/ 10.9/ 13.1/ 14.0/ 15.2 HICN8 14.2/ 14.2/ 15.6/ 21.2/ 27.1/ 30.4/ 33.4 FGON8 16.4/ 16.4/ 16.9/ 19.4/ 23.5/ 30.4/ 33.4 HILN8 9.2/ 9.2/ 11.1/ 14.6/ 22.0/ 28.0/ 32.9 EGFM5 17.3/ 17.5/ 18.5/ 20.2/ 29.5/ 33.8/ 39.1 OSLM5 10.0/ 10.4/ 13.2/ 17.3/ 30.2/ 33.2/ 34.5 DRTN8 13.7/ 13.7/ 15.3/ 18.6/ 27.3/ 31.3/ 36.6 PBNN8 14.8/ 14.8/ 18.6/ 25.0/ 35.0/ 39.0/ 43.5 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404231344/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Wild Rice River ABRN8 10.8/ 10.4/ 10.2/ 10.1/ 9.8/ 9.6/ 9.6 :Red River of the North WHNN8 6.2/ 5.4/ 5.0/ 4.3/ 3.8/ 3.4/ 3.1 HICN8 12.5/ 11.5/ 11.2/ 10.5/ 10.1/ 9.9/ 9.7 FGON8 15.8/ 15.0/ 14.8/ 14.4/ 14.1/ 13.9/ 13.8 HILN8 7.8/ 6.4/ 5.4/ 4.3/ 3.6/ 3.1/ 2.8 EGFM5 17.0/ 16.8/ 16.2/ 15.7/ 15.4/ 15.1/ 15.0 OSLM5 9.4/ 9.0/ 7.8/ 6.7/ 5.9/ 4.5/ 4.0 DRTN8 13.4/ 13.2/ 12.6/ 12.0/ 11.7/ 11.4/ 11.3 PBNN8 14.3/ 13.5/ 12.6/ 11.3/ 10.3/ 9.6/ 9.3 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$