FGUS65 KSTR 051731
ESGAZ 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

MARCH 5, 2019
     
                        FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
                                ARIZONA

The flood potential for Arizona Rivers and streams is above average at
this time.

Because the nature of flooding in Arizona is associated with rainfall 
events versus snow melt it's difficult to determine with much certainty 
the flood threat over a season. Existing streamflow, soil, and snowpack 
conditions are analyzed for their potential contribution to streamflow 
levels during future rainfall events. 

Seasonal October-February precipitation was 145 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, 105 percent of average for the Gila Basin and
140 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. February precipitation was
270 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 160 percent in the
Gila River Basin, and 260 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin. 

Basin snowpack conditions were near 125 percent of median in the
Salt-Verde River Basin, 90 percent of median in the upper Gila,
and 125 percent of median in the Little Colorado River Basin.

Modeled soil moisture states were much below average at the
beginning of the water year. However, soil moisture states have increased
dramatically over the past couple of months. March through May runoff
volumes are primarily influenced by the frequency and magnitude of winter
rain events.

Weak El Nino climate conditions suggest chances for above average
precipitation in Arizona.

Due to the presence of a possible weak El Nino, a persistent Madden-Julian
Oscillation, above average soil moisture states, and an active weather
pattern into the middle of March, the flood potential for Arizona is above
average at this time.

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