FGUS71 KCLE 281603 ESFCLE OHC005-007-033-035-043-055-063-075-077-083-085-093-095-099-101- 103-117-123-133-139-143-147-151-153-155-169-173-175-PAC039-049- 041615- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1203 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...FLOOD THREAT IS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY APRIL FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER WATERSHEDS OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... This is the seventh in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the National Weather Service every two weeks through early spring describing the potential for flooding across central and northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The rivers in the region are divided by those that drain north into Lake Erie, and those that drain south into the Ohio River. These outlooks are based on current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions, including snowpack and projected rainfall, which can either favor an above, average, or below normal flood risk over the coming two weeks. Flooding could occur with water levels having minor impacts even with a below normal outlook. This outlook is valid for the two- week period from March 28th to April 11th. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS... No snow pack currently exists across the region. ...STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day streamflow averages across the region were generally near to below normal for northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Streamflow values were generally in the 15th to 50th percentile over the past four weeks. Soil moisture conditions were generally near to below normal across the area. ...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS... No ice is present on area rivers and streams. ...WATER SUPPLY... The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) reservoirs were near normal winter pool elevations. Reservoir storage capacity is generally 80% to 100% at the projects. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... For the 6 to 10 day (Apr 2 to 6) outlook period, near normal temperatures are favored, while near to below normal precipitation is favored. For the 8 to 14 day (Apr 4 to 10) outlook period, probabilities are leaning towards above normal temperatures, while near normal precipitation is favored. The latest seasonal outlooks for April through June favor above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation across the region. ...SUMMARY... The threat for flooding over the next two weeks is near normal for this time of year. It is important to remember that heavy rain can cause flooding at any time. Extended hydrologic information will be included in the Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary at forecast.weather.gov/ product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=CLE. Observed and 5 day forecast river information can be found at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/cle. Ten day streamflow ensemble forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs. This is the final spring flood outlook for the season. For the latest updates, please visit our webpage at www.weather.gov/cleveland and follow us on social media. $$ Greenawalt