FGUS71 KLWX 161848
ESFLWX
DCC001-MDC001-003-005-009-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-031-033-037-
043-510-VAC003-013-015-043-047-059-061-069-079-091-099-107-113-
125-137-139-153-157-165-171-177-179-187-510-540-600-610-630-660-
683-685-790-820-840-WVC003-023-027-031-037-057-065-071-231900-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
248 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS NEAR NORMAL...

LWX Seasonal Flood Outlook 2023-06

INTRODUCTION: 
Each winter and early spring, the National Weather Service office
serving the Baltimore/Washington area issues a series of routine 
flood potential outlooks. These outlooks estimate the potential 
for river flooding (not flash flooding) across the 
Baltimore/Washington Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). This area 
includes the entire Potomac, Shenandoah, and Rappahannock River 
basins, as well as the lowermost portion of the Susquehanna, 
uppermost portion of the Youghiogheny, and most drainage basins 
feeding into the Upper Chesapeake Bay.

During this time of year, contributing factors to river flooding 
come from recent precipitation, soil moisture conditions, snow
cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, antecedent 
streamflow, expected weather conditions, and other factors. This 
outlook is valid for the time period through March 30th, 2023.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor 
which leads to river flooding. Heavy rain can rapidly cause river
flooding at any time of the year, even when river flood potential
is considered to be low or below average.

FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK: 
The river flood potential for week one of this outlook (through
March 23rd, 2023) is near average. A weak system during the early
parts of the first week may bring some light precipitation to the
region, but dry conditions are expected for the remainder of week.

During the second week of this outlook (March 23rd - March 30th),
above normal precipitation is favored with an average chance for 
flooding.

CURRENT FLOODING: 
There is no flooding within the Baltimore/Washington HSA as of
March 16th.

RECENT PRECIPITATION: 

Precipitation amounts through mid-March have been near to 
slightly below normal for the region.

To view these totals graphically, visit 
https://water.weather.gov/precip.

SNOW CONDITIONS: 
Snow analysis from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote
Sensing Center, indicates there is a light snow cover along the
Allegheny front, but no snow is reported elsewhere as of March
16th.

RIVER ICE: 
No river ice is currently being observed.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS: 
As of March 16th, streamflow conditions are below normal across
most of the region.

SOIL MOISTURE: 
Soil moisture is currently near to below normal for this time of 
the year areawide.

GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS: 
Groundwater conditions are near normal across the majority of the
HSA.

EXPECTED WEATHER: 

In the first week of this outlook (March 16th - March 23rd), a
weak system will pass through the region during the early parts of
the first week bringing a chance for light precipitation. Dry
conditions are likely for the remainder of the first week.

In the second week of this outlook (March 23rd - March 30th), 
Climate Prediction Center(CPC) favors near normal temperatures 
and above normal precipitation. 

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS: 
Ensemble river guidance indicates a below normal potential for 
flooding during the first week of the outlook.

SUMMARY: 
In the Baltimore/Washington HSA, the river flood potential is near
normal through March 30th.

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK: 
A soaking rain event over the past two weeks led to the removal of
D0 drought conditions for areas along the Allegheny front, the
eastern panhandle of WV, and parts of central MD. D0 drought 
conditions remain for parts of central VA. No water supply issues 
are expected at this time.

NEXT ISSUANCE: 
This product will be the last for the season.

For additional hydrologic or weather information, visit our
website at weather.gov/baltimore or weather.gov/washington. 
Select \"Rivers and Lakes\" or \"Hydrology\" for more
information.

$$