FGUS72 KMLB 311323
ESFMLB

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne, FL 
912 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023

...Summer Flood Outlook for East Central Florida...

The summer flood potential for east central Florida will be near to 
slightly above normal for June, July and August. After a very dry 
period in the winter and early spring, rainfall amounts for a 
majority of the area have recovered, returning to near to above 
normal values. Over the past 90 days, rainfall totals are running 2-
6 inches above normal for most of the area, with two pockets along 
the Space and Treasure Coasts that are 8-12 inches above normal. The 
exception is in northern Lake County, where in this same 90 day 
window, rainfall totals are 2-6 inches below normal. Because of the 
generally wet conditions most of this spring, streamflows are 
running near to above normal through late May, with flood conditions 
briefly observed for the Saint Johns River at Astor this month.

The latest three month outlook from the Climate Prediction Center 
outlines a 30 to 40% likelihood of above normal precipitation for 
the months of June, July and August across the Florida Peninsula. 
Drought conditions are forecast to quickly improve over the next 
several weeks as the east central FL wet season is well underway. 
Also of note, a transition from ENSO neutral to El Nino conditions 
will be possible in this same window this summer. 

$$

Smith