FGUS73 KEAX 242001 ESFEAX MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095- 101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-242100- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 04/26/2024 - 07/25/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Delaware River Muscotah 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 32 50 29 44 <5 <5 :Stranger Creek Easton 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 80 85 76 81 16 16 Tonganoxie 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 48 64 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River De Soto 26.0 33.0 36.0 : 10 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 Turner Bridge KCK 41.0 47.5 54.0 : 8 13 <5 6 <5 <5 23rd Street KCK 33.0 54.0 55.0 : 19 40 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Missouri River St Joseph 17.0 21.0 27.0 : 49 78 29 55 9 27 Atchison 22.0 27.0 30.0 : 45 71 19 40 9 28 Leavenworth 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 41 63 18 38 5 18 Parkville 25.0 28.0 35.0 : 27 52 15 35 <5 12 Kansas City 32.0 35.0 49.0 : 12 30 9 16 <5 <5 Napoleon 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 60 80 18 42 8 14 Waverly 20.0 29.0 31.0 : 61 80 12 36 10 15 Miami 18.0 28.0 29.0 : 70 81 12 37 10 21 Glasgow 25.0 27.0 32.0 : 57 77 47 70 19 33 Boonville 21.0 30.0 34.0 : 56 77 17 28 <5 9 :Tarkio River Fairfax 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 59 71 54 67 37 51 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 23.0 28.0 35.0 : 16 15 <5 5 <5 <5 :102 River Maryville 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 40 37 27 22 <5 <5 Rosendale 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 50 46 49 45 13 14 :Platte River Agency 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 78 84 50 50 9 10 :Little Platte River Smithville 27.0 30.5 35.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Platte River Sharps Station 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 57 62 42 52 14 24 Platte City 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 68 79 35 40 12 21 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 24 39 6 8 <5 <5 Bannister Road Ka 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 14 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 71 Highway Kansas 27.0 36.0 38.0 : 21 31 <5 <5 <5 <5 63rd Street Kansa 26.0 33.0 37.0 : 21 33 <5 5 <5 <5 Colorado Avenue K 31.0 36.0 37.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Stadium Drive Kan 33.0 39.0 43.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 17th Street Kansa 33.0 36.0 38.0 : 7 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 12th Street Kansa 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Lake City 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 43 47 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Crooked River Richmond 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 75 70 63 67 <5 <5 :Wakenda Creek Carrollton 16.0 19.0 21.0 : >98 69 56 54 12 14 :Blackwater River Valley City 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 71 84 68 78 26 31 Blue Lick 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 79 89 44 56 10 15 :Lamine River Otterville 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 68 62 48 48 12 11 :Moniteau Creek Fayette 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 69 74 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Petite Saline Creek Boonville 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 67 67 45 47 <5 <5 :Thompson River Trenton 27.0 31.0 34.0 : 37 39 17 23 8 9 :Grand River Pattonsburg 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 53 65 38 55 33 41 Gallatin 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 61 66 22 22 11 12 Chillicothe 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 67 70 56 63 35 42 Sumner 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 81 84 79 82 11 12 Brunswick 19.0 27.0 33.0 : 68 73 25 33 11 12 :Chariton River Novinger 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 44 49 35 40 26 27 Prairie Hill 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 67 75 39 46 24 24 :South Grand River Urich 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 50 61 34 49 <5 <5 :Big Creek Blairstown 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 92 95 68 74 <5 <5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 28.0 45.0 48.0 : 42 52 <5 <5 <5 <5 La Cygne 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 45 68 33 37 <5 <5 Trading Post 27.0 29.0 40.0 : 35 44 28 37 6 6 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 04/26/2024 - 07/25/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Delaware River Muscotah 6.4 7.2 13.0 22.0 28.5 30.1 31.1 :Stranger Creek Easton 9.1 10.8 18.1 20.2 22.4 24.3 25.9 Tonganoxie 6.6 10.4 18.1 22.7 25.7 27.5 28.0 :Kansas River De Soto 8.5 8.5 10.5 14.3 20.8 26.1 27.4 Turner Bridge KCK 9.4 10.6 15.6 23.4 30.9 38.7 42.8 23rd Street KCK 14.4 15.2 18.7 25.1 31.8 39.7 43.8 :Missouri River St Joseph 11.0 12.4 14.3 16.9 22.8 26.5 29.5 Atchison 14.2 15.9 18.4 20.4 26.3 29.9 31.8 Leavenworth 9.0 10.7 13.2 16.4 23.1 27.2 30.5 Parkville 13.9 15.1 17.9 20.3 25.2 30.2 33.5 Kansas City 13.6 14.9 18.2 24.1 28.6 34.3 39.6 Napoleon 10.7 12.5 15.0 19.9 23.4 27.9 31.2 Waverly 14.2 17.1 18.7 22.7 26.6 30.8 31.7 Miami 11.4 15.7 17.2 22.1 26.2 29.2 30.0 Glasgow 16.7 20.6 23.3 25.9 30.4 37.9 38.9 Boonville 12.2 16.7 19.3 22.1 27.4 32.7 33.2 :Tarkio River Fairfax 8.5 9.7 11.8 21.6 28.0 28.7 29.5 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 6.5 9.4 12.2 16.8 21.3 24.8 26.8 :102 River Maryville 10.4 11.7 12.8 16.5 23.7 25.7 26.3 Rosendale 10.9 12.1 13.4 17.9 22.1 23.2 23.4 :Platte River Agency 13.4 17.2 20.8 25.0 26.8 29.6 31.1 :Little Platte River Smithville 13.2 13.8 14.5 18.6 21.8 24.9 26.5 :Platte River Sharps Station 17.4 18.2 22.9 27.5 32.4 34.3 36.0 Platte City 14.7 15.4 19.1 22.3 27.1 30.5 32.5 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 26.3 26.4 27.4 32.0 34.8 38.4 39.4 Bannister Road Ka 7.1 8.0 14.8 21.1 29.4 36.0 36.7 71 Highway Kansas 5.6 6.8 15.2 18.8 25.0 31.3 32.0 63rd Street Kansa 9.1 10.1 15.5 18.7 24.6 30.6 31.7 Colorado Avenue K 9.0 10.0 15.0 17.8 22.3 28.0 29.1 Stadium Drive Kan 8.4 9.0 15.3 19.4 26.6 30.6 31.9 17th Street Kansa 11.6 12.6 19.2 22.2 28.7 32.2 33.3 12th Street Kansa 7.6 8.7 14.3 16.8 24.2 27.5 28.4 :Little Blue River Lake City 6.2 6.4 9.7 14.8 21.3 23.8 24.2 :Crooked River Richmond 18.6 18.6 20.0 22.5 25.6 26.8 27.1 :Thompson River Trenton 16.0 16.3 18.6 25.2 29.4 33.4 35.4 :Grand River Pattonsburg 4.5 7.4 13.6 26.9 33.2 42.6 44.7 Gallatin 7.5 8.8 17.8 28.2 32.3 40.0 41.5 Chillicothe 11.0 11.9 21.5 30.1 39.0 40.6 41.4 Sumner 14.1 17.7 30.7 34.5 37.3 40.1 42.7 Brunswick 10.1 13.1 18.2 20.2 26.9 35.7 37.5 :Chariton River Novinger 3.7 8.0 11.1 18.7 26.4 28.4 30.2 Prairie Hill 5.5 9.8 14.1 17.4 20.7 23.2 23.8 :South Grand River Urich 6.9 11.5 16.3 24.0 26.8 29.0 31.8 :Big Creek Blairstown 13.7 20.7 22.7 24.3 25.8 27.5 27.7 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 14.9 18.2 21.8 26.2 33.7 37.2 39.8 La Cygne 8.0 11.9 16.1 24.2 31.7 33.9 34.6 Trading Post 9.2 12.2 17.2 22.7 31.8 38.3 40.9 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 04/26/2024 - 07/25/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Delaware River Muscotah 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Stranger Creek Easton 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 Tonganoxie 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 :Kansas River De Soto 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 :Missouri River St Joseph 7.6 7.3 7.0 6.4 5.3 5.0 4.4 Atchison 9.5 9.2 8.7 7.9 6.7 6.3 5.6 Leavenworth 4.9 4.6 4.2 3.6 2.6 2.3 1.7 Parkville 10.1 9.8 9.3 8.8 8.1 7.7 7.0 Kansas City 10.3 10.2 9.6 9.0 8.3 8.1 7.1 Napoleon 7.6 7.3 6.8 6.3 5.7 5.3 4.5 Waverly 11.4 11.2 10.7 10.3 9.7 9.2 8.5 Miami 8.4 8.1 7.7 7.2 6.7 6.0 5.1 Glasgow 11.9 11.6 11.1 10.6 10.1 9.3 8.7 Boonville 7.7 7.5 6.9 6.5 6.0 5.2 4.6 :Tarkio River Fairfax 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 :Nodaway River Burlington Juncti 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 :102 River Maryville 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 Rosendale 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 :Platte River Agency 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 :Little Platte River Smithville 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 :Platte River Sharps Station 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.9 :Blue River Blue Ridge Boulev 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 Bannister Road Ka 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 71 Highway Kansas 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 63rd Street Kansa 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 Colorado Avenue K 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 Stadium Drive Kan 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 17th Street Kansa 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 12th Street Kansa 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 :Little Blue River Lake City 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 :Crooked River Richmond 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 4.7 3.8 :Thompson River Trenton 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.9 :Grand River Pattonsburg 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 Gallatin 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 Chillicothe 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.4 Sumner 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 :Chariton River Novinger 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Prairie Hill 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 :South Grand River Urich 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.0 2.0 :Big Creek Blairstown 6.3 6.3 6.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 :Marais Des Cygnes River Osawatomie 13.2 13.2 13.2 12.8 12.5 12.4 12.4 La Cygne 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 Trading Post 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water information. $$ SAW