FGUS73 KJKL 141739 ESFJKL KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129-131- 133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231-235- 237-281200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 139 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3... This outlook covers eastern Kentucky. The flood risk is near to below normal for this time of year. This means that minor flooding is expected, with some instances of moderate flooding possible. The outlook is valid through May 2024. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Cumberland River Barbourville 27.0 33.0 38.0 : 25 33 9 14 <5 <5 Pineville 1002.0 1010.0 1019.0 : 34 33 17 10 <5 <5 Williamsburg 21.0 27.5 32.0 : 48 49 21 22 8 11 Baxter 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 22 24 10 12 7 8 :Kentucky River Heidelberg 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 43 49 11 9 <5 <5 Ravenna 21.0 25.0 31.0 : 59 64 34 42 13 20 :Levisa Fork Pikeville 35.0 42.0 50.0 : 24 15 <5 <5 <5 <5 Prestonsburg 40.0 43.0 46.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Levisa Fork Big Sandy River Paintsville 35.0 38.0 42.0 : 23 10 10 6 <5 <5 :North Fork Kentucky River Hazard 20.0 27.0 33.0 : 20 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Jackson 29.0 31.0 40.0 : 23 24 19 20 <5 <5 :Pork Fork Cumberland River Cumberland 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Red River Clay City 17.0 19.0 23.0 : 26 27 17 19 7 6 :Russell Fork Big Sandy River Elkhorn City 21.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Fork Kentucky River Booneville 27.0 32.0 38.0 : 40 43 23 23 9 8 Oneida 29.0 34.0 38.0 : 10 10 <5 6 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Cumberland River Barbourville 9.7 11.4 15.8 22.7 26.8 32.7 35.2 Pineville 981.4 982.9 987.1 994.8 1006.2 1013.6 1016.6 Williamsburg 11.9 12.8 16.6 20.6 25.9 31.4 32.8 Baxter 4.2 4.7 7.5 12.5 15.5 17.9 21.5 :Kentucky River Heidelberg 13.8 15.7 17.1 19.3 21.7 24.2 25.2 Ravenna 15.5 17.2 18.5 22.4 26.4 32.0 34.8 :Levisa Fork Pikeville 11.5 12.2 16.2 25.2 34.7 38.4 40.8 Prestonsburg 8.1 9.6 15.1 22.3 31.9 35.3 36.3 :Levisa Fork Big Sandy River Paintsville 9.3 10.7 16.0 22.7 34.4 38.1 41.2 :North Fork Kentucky River Hazard 5.6 6.0 7.5 10.7 18.1 23.5 25.3 Jackson 5.4 7.3 10.9 17.6 27.8 35.5 39.3 :Pork Fork Cumberland River Cumberland 4.6 5.0 6.4 8.1 9.8 10.7 12.1 :Red River Clay City 7.9 8.4 9.9 12.7 17.1 20.5 24.2 :Russell Fork Big Sandy River Elkhorn City 8.4 9.0 9.8 12.3 15.0 17.1 17.4 :South Fork Kentucky River Booneville 8.3 10.7 15.5 24.1 31.2 37.3 41.1 Oneida 10.5 12.0 15.1 20.1 24.3 28.6 33.0 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Cumberland River Barbourville 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 Pineville 977.1 977.1 976.9 976.7 976.7 976.6 976.6 Williamsburg 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 Baxter 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 :Kentucky River Heidelberg 10.0 9.9 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.0 Ravenna 11.1 10.9 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.1 :Levisa Fork Pikeville 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.1 Prestonsburg 3.4 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 :Levisa Fork Big Sandy River Paintsville 4.4 4.1 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 :North Fork Kentucky River Hazard 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 Jackson 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 :Pork Fork Cumberland River Cumberland 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 :Red River Clay City 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 :Russell Fork Big Sandy River Elkhorn City 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 :South Fork Kentucky River Booneville 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.2 Oneida 7.8 7.5 7.2 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.0 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Precipitation over the past 2 weeks generally averaged between 1 and 2 inches, near normal for the period. Current soil moisture values are running below normal for the middle of March. Streamflows were running near normal and reservoirs were running slightly above normal. Precipitation over the next week looks to range between a quarter and a half inch, around three quarters of an inch below normal for the period. The vast majority of the precipitation can be expected to fall through Friday March 15th, with little additional precipitation occurring the rest of the period. The 6 to 10 day outlook, which runs from March 19th through March 23rd, calls for below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. The 8 to 14 day outlook, which runs from March 21st through March 27th, calls for near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The outlook for the rest of March, as well as April and May, calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation. Additional supportive data and explanations are available for precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as soil moisture at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa. Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch. Current reservoir levels for this area are available at www.lrl- wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html. Visit our web site weather.gov/jkl for more weather and water information. This is the final Spring and Flood Water Resources Outlook for 2024. $$ GEOGERIAN