FGUS73 KMKX 142101 ESFMKX WIC077-047-039-117-111-021-027-131-089-049-025-055-133-079-065-045- 105-127-101-059-142200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 400 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2024 ...Spring Flood Outlook... The risk of spring flooding is below average across southern Wisconsin. Flooding is still possible, but the underlying risk is not elevated at this time. The absense of a snowpack, no frost in the ground, and average to below average soil moisture are the main factors in the below aversge risk. ...Flood Outlook Factors... Precipitation was 75 to 150% of normal for the December, Janurary, February season and the past 30 days were 50 to 175% of normal. However, February precipitation was dry, with 25 to 75% of normal precipitation, which contributed to a lower flood risk. Streamflow averaged over the past 28 days is in the normal range, the 25 to 75th percentile, so there is room in the rivers to hold additional rainfall. Currently there is no snow on the ground, which results in lower runoff. Soil moisture is in the 10 to 30th percentile in southwest and parts of south-central Wisconsin and in the 30-70th percentile across parts of south-central and southeast Wisconsin. Precipitation deficits are 6 to 12 inches since June 2023 across Sauk, western Columbia, Marquette, and Green Lake counties and are noted as Moderate to Severe Drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Rivers and lakes are mainly ice free. The outlook for late March from the Climate Prediction Center indicates increased chances for near to below average temperature and above average precipitation. The Outlook for March, April, May indicates increased chances for above average temperature and equal chances of above, near, and below averge precipitation. ...Probabilistic Forecast Informatino for River Forecast Points... In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Rock River Watertown 5.5 6.0 6.5 : 5 16 <5 11 <5 7 :Crawfish River Milford 7.0 9.0 10.0 : 17 38 5 11 <5 7 :Rock River Jefferson 10.0 11.0 13.0 : 19 39 13 28 <5 7 Fort Atkinson 16.0 17.0 18.0 : 12 20 <5 9 <5 5 Lake Koshkonong 10.0 11.0 11.5 : 30 45 16 33 13 26 Afton 9.0 11.1 12.2 : 30 44 13 18 <5 10 :Turtle Creek Clinton 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 12 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 Beloit 7.5 10.5 12.5 : 9 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pecatonica River Darlington 13.5 15.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :East Branch Pecatonica River Blanchardville 11.0 14.0 16.0 : 8 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pecatonica River Martintown 13.5 18.0 21.0 : 9 23 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sugar River Albany 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Brodhead 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 19 31 <5 7 <5 <5 :Wisconsin River Wisconsin Dells 16.0 17.6 18.9 : <5 25 <5 13 <5 6 Portage 17.0 18.0 19.0 : 14 65 6 51 <5 24 :Baraboo River Reedsburg 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 34 49 20 30 9 14 Rock Springs 18.5 21.0 23.0 : 19 35 11 26 6 8 West Baraboo 9.0 10.5 12.5 : 7 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 Baraboo 16.0 22.0 23.1 : 19 39 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Black Earth Creek Black Earth 5.5 7.0 8.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fox River Princeton 9.5 11.0 12.0 : 7 20 <5 <5 <5 <5 Berlin 13.0 14.5 16.0 : 10 26 <5 6 <5 <5 :Sheboygan River Sheboygan 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 15 30 8 10 6 8 :Root River Franklin 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 19 24 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Root River Canal Raymond 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 22 24 5 7 <5 <5 :Root River Racine 7.0 7.5 8.0 : 6 9 <5 5 <5 <5 :Cedar Creek Cedarburg 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Milwaukee River Cedarburg 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 15 38 6 10 <5 6 :Fox River Lower Waukesha 6.0 8.0 10.0 : 11 15 6 9 <5 <5 Burlington 11.0 12.0 14.0 : 11 25 8 12 <5 <5 New Munster 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 54 54 11 23 10 15 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Rock River Watertown 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 4.5 5.2 5.6 :Crawfish River Milford 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.5 6.3 7.9 9.2 :Rock River Jefferson 6.6 6.6 6.7 7.2 9.2 11.3 12.4 Fort Atkinson 13.0 13.0 13.2 13.5 14.6 16.3 17.0 Lake Koshkonong 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.7 10.2 12.0 12.8 Afton 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.8 9.2 11.3 12.1 :Turtle Creek Clinton 4.4 4.6 5.1 5.5 6.3 8.1 9.1 Beloit 4.3 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.9 7.3 8.5 :Pecatonica River Darlington 3.7 4.1 4.6 5.5 7.0 9.4 10.6 :East Branch Pecatonica River Blanchardville 5.4 5.8 6.6 7.7 9.4 10.4 11.8 :Pecatonica River Martintown 7.7 7.7 8.1 9.2 10.9 13.2 14.2 :Sugar River Albany 5.0 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.8 10.0 11.0 Brodhead 2.1 2.2 2.7 3.5 4.7 6.2 8.0 :Wisconsin River Wisconsin Dells 4.6 5.3 6.6 9.1 11.0 12.6 14.1 Portage 11.1 11.6 12.4 13.9 16.3 17.4 18.2 :Baraboo River Reedsburg 7.9 8.2 10.9 12.3 15.2 17.2 19.3 Rock Springs 10.6 10.8 13.1 14.5 17.5 21.5 23.2 West Baraboo 3.1 3.2 4.2 5.0 6.0 7.7 9.9 Baraboo 9.2 9.5 11.7 13.6 15.5 18.1 20.8 :Black Earth Creek Black Earth 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.1 6.7 :Fox River Princeton 5.5 5.9 6.4 7.2 7.9 9.1 10.0 Berlin 10.1 10.3 10.8 11.5 12.0 13.1 14.0 :Sheboygan River Sheboygan 3.3 3.6 4.5 5.7 7.0 8.5 12.2 :Root River Franklin 4.2 4.9 6.2 6.8 7.7 8.4 8.8 :Root River Canal Raymond 4.0 4.8 6.1 7.3 8.9 10.4 11.1 :Root River Racine 3.7 3.8 4.3 4.9 5.5 6.5 7.1 :Cedar Creek Cedarburg 6.5 6.6 7.0 7.6 8.4 9.0 9.9 :Milwaukee River Cedarburg 7.3 7.5 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.9 13.4 :Fox River Lower Waukesha 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.6 8.7 Burlington 8.4 8.4 8.7 9.7 10.3 11.7 12.6 New Munster 9.3 9.3 9.9 11.2 12.0 13.9 15.1 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Rock River Watertown 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.4 :Crawfish River Milford 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 :Rock River Jefferson 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.7 Fort Atkinson 11.7 11.6 11.3 11.2 10.9 10.8 10.8 Lake Koshkonong 6.8 6.4 6.2 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.8 Afton 5.8 5.7 4.4 3.9 3.3 2.7 2.6 :Turtle Creek Clinton 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 Beloit 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 :Pecatonica River Darlington 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 :East Branch Pecatonica River Blanchardville 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 :Pecatonica River Martintown 6.8 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 :Sugar River Albany 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 Brodhead 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 :Wisconsin River Wisconsin Dells 2.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 Portage 9.7 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.1 :Baraboo River Reedsburg 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.3 3.1 3.0 Rock Springs 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.5 West Baraboo 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Baraboo 7.4 7.0 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0 :Black Earth Creek Black Earth 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 :Fox River Princeton 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.3 Berlin 9.8 9.7 9.4 9.2 8.7 8.4 8.2 :Sheboygan River Sheboygan 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 :Root River Franklin 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 :Root River Canal Raymond 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 :Root River Racine 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 :Cedar Creek Cedarburg 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 :Milwaukee River Cedarburg 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 :Fox River Lower Waukesha 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 Burlington 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.2 New Munster 6.9 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.5 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/mkx for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued mid April. $$