FGUS73 KMPX 141514 ESFMSP MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139- 141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-312359- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1010 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook for the Upper Mississippi, Minnesota, and Chippewa (WI) River Basins... ...There is a Below Normal Probability of Spring Flooding Throughout the Area... In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical/normal (HS) probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. When the value of CS is greater than that of HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than that of HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATERGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :West Branch Lac Qui Parle River Dawson 39.0 40.0 42.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Redwood River Redwood Falls 6.0 15.0 16.0 : 10 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River Springfield 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 17 38 7 18 <5 <5 New Ulm 11.0 13.0 16.0 : 8 28 6 18 <5 9 :Minnesota River Montevideo 14.0 16.0 17.5 : 12 30 <5 20 <5 8 Granite Falls 885.0 889.0 892.0 : <5 22 <5 7 <5 <5 Morton 21.0 23.0 26.0 : 13 35 7 22 <5 7 New Ulm 800.0 804.0 806.0 : 5 18 <5 8 <5 6 Mankato 22.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 13 <5 7 <5 <5 Henderson 732.0 736.0 739.5 : <5 19 <5 8 <5 <5 Jordan 25.0 28.0 34.0 : 9 30 <5 16 <5 <5 Savage 702.0 710.0 712.0 : 22 62 <5 13 <5 10 :Long Prairie River Long Prairie 7.0 8.0 10.0 : <5 17 <5 7 <5 <5 :Sauk River St Cloud 6.0 7.0 9.0 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 :South Fork Crow River Mayer 11.0 15.0 16.0 : 14 28 <5 11 <5 8 Delano 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 7 20 <5 16 <5 11 :Crow River Rockford 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 8 22 <5 12 <5 8 :Mississippi River St Cloud 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 7 32 <5 15 <5 <5 Hwy 169 Champlin 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 5 21 <5 8 <5 <5 :Rum River Milaca 6.0 7.0 8.0 : 6 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 St Francis 8.0 10.0 11.0 : 11 20 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Snake River Mora 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 13 28 <5 9 <5 <5 :Mississippi River Fridley 16.0 16.5 17.0 : <5 8 <5 7 <5 6 St Paul 14.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 25 <5 19 <5 12 Hastings L/D#2 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 8 40 <5 19 <5 13 Red Wing L/D#3 680.5 681.5 683.0 : <5 25 <5 17 <5 8 Red Wing 14.0 15.0 16.0 : <5 20 <5 14 <5 10 :Cannon River Northfield 897.0 899.0 900.0 : <5 17 <5 5 <5 <5 :St Croix River Stillwater 87.0 88.0 89.0 : <5 25 <5 19 <5 12 :Eau Claire River Fall Creek 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 8 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chippewa River Eau Claire 773.0 776.0 778.0 : <5 14 <5 7 <5 <5 Durand 13.0 15.5 17.0 : 10 42 <5 12 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION (NORMAL) FT = FEET In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :West Branch Lac Qui Parle River Dawson 32.3 32.4 33.1 33.7 34.5 35.9 38.0 :Redwood River Redwood Falls 1.8 1.8 2.5 3.3 4.2 6.4 7.7 :Cottonwood River Springfield 13.6 14.2 15.8 17.6 20.7 24.1 28.6 New Ulm 4.9 5.2 6.0 7.4 9.0 10.5 14.1 :Minnesota River Montevideo 4.7 5.2 7.0 9.8 11.9 14.3 15.3 Granite Falls 880.6 880.7 881.5 882.5 883.1 884.1 884.7 Morton 10.2 11.6 13.1 16.4 19.1 21.7 23.6 New Ulm 786.9 787.6 788.9 791.7 793.7 797.1 800.1 Mankato 5.5 6.2 7.6 10.2 12.9 16.9 18.9 Henderson 716.9 718.2 720.5 723.8 726.3 729.5 731.1 Jordan 8.0 9.3 11.8 15.6 20.0 24.3 25.9 Savage 687.7 688.4 690.6 697.8 701.1 705.0 707.5 :Long Prairie River Long Prairie 1.9 2.2 2.8 4.5 5.8 6.5 6.8 :Sauk River St Cloud 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.8 3.7 4.8 5.2 :South Fork Crow River Mayer 2.6 3.6 5.2 7.2 9.5 12.1 12.9 Delano 6.9 7.8 9.7 11.9 14.0 16.2 16.9 :Crow River Rockford 3.3 3.3 4.5 6.0 7.6 9.4 11.0 :Mississippi River St Cloud 4.7 5.0 5.7 6.5 7.3 8.5 9.4 Hwy 169 Champlin 4.5 4.7 5.2 6.2 7.3 9.7 12.2 :Rum River Milaca 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.6 4.5 5.4 6.3 St Francis 2.9 3.2 4.6 5.5 6.5 8.1 8.8 :Snake River Mora 2.8 3.5 4.7 6.5 9.1 11.2 12.1 :Mississippi River Fridley 5.0 5.3 6.1 8.0 9.5 12.2 14.2 St Paul 3.0 3.0 3.7 6.4 8.8 11.4 13.5 Hastings L/D#2 5.3 5.5 6.5 9.4 11.4 14.6 16.1 Red Wing L/D#3 669.0 669.4 671.2 674.4 676.3 679.1 680.0 Red Wing 3.5 3.9 4.9 6.9 8.4 11.4 12.3 :Cannon River Northfield 891.1 891.5 892.3 893.3 894.2 895.9 897.0 :St Croix River Stillwater 75.5 75.7 77.1 79.8 82.0 85.5 86.9 :Eau Claire River Fall Creek 3.6 4.5 5.4 6.8 8.2 10.4 13.8 :Chippewa River Eau Claire 761.1 761.9 762.9 764.9 766.8 768.9 770.0 Durand 5.0 6.0 7.2 9.2 11.0 13.0 14.0 In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :West Branch Lac Qui Parle River Dawson 32.3 32.3 32.2 32.1 31.9 31.2 31.2 :Redwood River Redwood Falls 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 :Cottonwood River Springfield 12.6 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.1 11.9 11.9 New Ulm 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 :Minnesota River Montevideo 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.5 Granite Falls 880.4 880.4 880.2 880.1 879.9 879.7 879.6 Morton 9.5 9.3 9.0 8.7 8.2 7.7 7.5 New Ulm 786.6 786.5 786.2 785.9 785.5 785.1 784.9 Mankato 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.8 Henderson 713.9 713.9 713.5 713.0 712.6 712.0 711.6 Jordan 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.9 Savage 687.5 687.5 687.4 687.4 687.4 687.4 687.4 :Long Prairie River Long Prairie 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 :Sauk River St Cloud 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 :South Fork Crow River Mayer 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.8 Delano 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.7 5.2 4.9 :Crow River Rockford 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.2 2.0 :Mississippi River St Cloud 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.8 Hwy 169 Champlin 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 :Rum River Milaca 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 St Francis 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 :Snake River Mora 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 :Mississippi River Fridley 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.2 4.0 3.3 St Paul 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Hastings L/D#2 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 Red Wing L/D#3 668.1 668.1 668.1 668.0 667.8 667.6 667.5 Red Wing 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.6 :Cannon River Northfield 890.2 890.2 890.1 890.0 889.9 889.6 889.5 :St Croix River Stillwater 75.3 75.3 75.3 75.2 75.2 75.1 75.1 :Eau Claire River Fall Creek 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 :Chippewa River Eau Claire 759.4 759.3 759.0 758.8 758.7 758.6 758.6 Durand 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 For the winter of 2023-24, we have seen a record low amount of snowfall across the entire upper Midwest. This has resulted in a below normal probability of spring flooding, due to little if any snow water equivalent to drive the snowmelt flood season. Soil moisture has been decreasing over the past few weeks, an unusual occurrence in March, while drought conditions are beginning to take over. Thus, there is ample storage for any potential rainfall available in the soil, as well as in lakes, ponds, and wetlands as we move through spring. At this point, worsening drought is probably a bigger concern for the area than potential flooding. Long range weather patterns are not showing a strong indication of either above or below normal precipitation. These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data, along with current conditions of the river levels, soil moisture, and snow cover, combined with 30 to 90 day long range outlooks. This information is available online in graphical format, at: https://www.weather.gov/twincities and at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?who=mpx Beginning on March 27th, National Weather Service water recources information will have a new home, the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS). Starting that day, check us out at https://water.noaa.gov ! This is the final spring flood outlook from NWS Twin Cities this season. $$