FGUS73 KPAH 141456 ESFPAH ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047- 055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225- 233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-281200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 952 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3... This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time period for mid-March through mid-May. It includes the mid- Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast Missouri. ...Flood Outlook Highlights... Flood potential is normal to below normal for the outlook period for much of the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys and their tributaries in southwest Indiana and southern Illinois, and west Kentucky. A strong El Nino played a large role in what has been a drier and warmer winter across the entire region. Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground moisture, river flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are rarely a factor in flooding for this part of the country. ...Current Conditions... While some rain fell within the past week, rain totals were negligible. Precipitation totals for most locations across the region for the month of February were less than one inch. While there is a small rise coming down some of the bigger rivers due to forecasted rainfall, no forecast points are expected to exceed flood stage. Smaller rivers in southeast Missouri are running 10 to 20 percent of normal. The Ohio and Mississippi Rivers are running less than 20 percent of normal near the confluence. Most areas are below normal average flow. Surface soil moisture is below normal but it is responsive to local rainfall. Deeper soil moisture and longer term accumulative averages remain below normal. There is no frost depth in our region. There is no significant snow in either the Mississippi or the Ohio Valleys. ...Probabilistic Outlooks... In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Green River Calhoun 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 20 33 11 20 <5 <5 Paradise 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 63 64 18 22 <5 <5 :Little Wabash River Carmi 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 63 64 37 38 17 20 :Ohio River Evansville 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 15 22 <5 <5 <5 <5 Golconda 40.0 49.0 55.0 : 27 44 <5 6 <5 <5 Henderson 36.0 43.0 48.0 : 75 51 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mount Vernon 35.0 45.0 52.0 : 57 66 <5 <5 <5 <5 Newburgh Dam 38.0 48.0 56.0 : 71 75 <5 <5 <5 <5 Owensboro 40.0 44.0 49.0 : 23 31 <5 <5 <5 <5 Shawneetown 33.0 43.0 53.0 : 67 79 18 35 <5 <5 J.T. Myers Dam 37.0 49.0 60.0 : 60 71 <5 6 <5 <5 :Patoka River Princeton 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 59 62 40 47 15 13 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 41 40 33 33 20 20 :Wabash River New Harmony 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 68 79 19 26 <5 <5 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 20.0 27.0 34.0 : 45 55 10 12 <5 <5 Murphysboro 22.0 28.0 36.0 : 46 69 28 47 15 16 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Green River Calhoun 15.1 15.8 16.6 18.2 21.4 26.4 29.6 Paradise 373.6 375.8 378.5 381.6 384.6 387.5 390.3 :Little Wabash River Carmi 19.6 21.0 24.5 29.7 33.9 35.9 36.8 :Ohio River Evansville 27.5 28.8 34.1 37.3 40.8 42.6 42.8 Golconda 32.9 33.3 35.0 37.6 40.2 44.2 46.1 Henderson 23.3 24.5 29.5 32.6 36.1 38.1 38.3 Mount Vernon 27.8 28.6 32.8 35.8 39.5 41.8 42.2 Newburgh Dam 29.4 32.1 37.3 41.3 43.4 44.6 44.9 Owensboro 26.6 29.1 33.4 36.8 39.7 41.6 42.0 Shawneetown 27.1 28.1 31.3 36.3 40.8 45.4 47.1 J.T. Myers Dam 29.0 30.0 34.3 38.9 42.3 45.5 47.3 :Patoka River Princeton 12.0 13.5 16.0 19.1 21.3 24.0 24.3 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 8.0 8.9 10.1 12.6 19.1 22.0 24.8 :Wabash River New Harmony 9.6 11.4 14.4 16.7 19.7 20.6 21.0 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 12.0 12.6 16.4 19.1 22.0 27.0 31.7 Murphysboro 13.1 14.5 17.9 20.4 29.1 41.4 41.5 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Green River Calhoun 12.1 11.8 11.3 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.5 Paradise 367.2 366.8 366.0 365.4 365.1 364.9 364.8 :Little Wabash River Carmi 5.2 4.5 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.7 :Ohio River Evansville 16.4 15.9 15.2 14.5 14.0 13.8 13.7 Golconda 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 Henderson 14.3 13.9 13.4 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.2 Mount Vernon 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.3 Newburgh Dam 17.0 16.7 15.5 14.7 13.8 13.5 13.4 Owensboro 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 Shawneetown 19.2 18.3 17.5 16.8 16.5 16.3 16.2 J.T. Myers Dam 19.1 17.6 16.1 15.0 14.2 13.3 13.0 :Patoka River Princeton 8.1 7.9 7.0 5.3 4.7 4.6 4.5 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.7 4.7 :Wabash River New Harmony 5.0 4.1 3.2 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.5 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 9.9 8.4 7.4 6.3 5.5 5.0 4.6 Murphysboro 9.0 7.2 5.5 4.4 3.4 1.5 0.4 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. ...Weather Outlooks... A fairly strong spring storm will affect the region through Friday. Showers and storms are possible. Some of the strong storms may produce brief heavy rainfall. The 8 to 14 day outlook for March 21 through 27 calls for normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. During this time, normal average temperatures are around 50 degrees and rainfall during this period is between 1 and 1.2 inches. The Outlook through March calls for equal chances for precipitation. This means that there is no strong signal in the long range models and there are equal chances for normal, below normal, and above normal rainfall. Normal precipitation for March is between 4 and 4 1/2 inches. The outlook for March through May calls for above normal precipitation. Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water information. This will be the last Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook for 2024 unless conditions warrant. $$ Lamm