FGUS74 KAMA 051747
ESFAMA
OKC007-025-139-TXC011-065-087-111-117-
129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-359-375-381-
393-421-483-060547-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1147 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

...FLOOD RISK IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...

Soil moisture conditions...
From December through February, precipitation was above normal 
across the central Oklahoma Panhandle with near normal precipitation 
across the rest of the region.  Soil moisture conditions are near 
normal across the Panhandles.

River and stream conditions...
Rivers across the Panhandles are running near to slightly below 
normal levels for this time of year. Reservoirs are well below 
capacity.

Drought areas...
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows that the far western Oklahoma 
Panhandle is experiencing Severe Drought (D2) with at lest 
abnormally dry conditions (D0) west of Guymon in the Oklahoma 
Panhandle. The forecast calls for the drought to persist across the 
western Oklahoma Panhandle during the next three months.

Long term outlook...
The precipitation outlook for March, April, and May from the
Climate Prediction Center calls for a slight chance of 
below normal precipitation across the Panhandles.

Spring flood potential...
Flash flooding and short term flooding in the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles usually occur in response to specific precipitation
events and are not usually tied to soil moisture, reservoir
storage, or other precursor factors. The three month outlook for
precipitation is a slight chance of below normal precipitation, 
and the overall spring flood potential is near normal.

Information used to compile this flood potential outlook
was provided courtesy of the Arkansas Red Basin River
Forecast Center, Climate Prediction Center, U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers, and the United States Geological Survey.

For more specific web information concerning river stages and
forecasts for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, go to:

                  www.weather.gov/ama
                  www.weather.gov/abrfc


$$