FGUS74 KLIX 071709 ESFLIX LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-100045- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE, LA 1110 AM CST THU MAR 07 2019 ...2019 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI... ...FLOOD RISK IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION... OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS...WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS HAD 15 TO 30 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 3 MONTHS. OF THAT RAINFALL, 10 TO 15 INCHES OCCURRING OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAD SIGNIFICANT SNOW THIS YEAR. SNOW DEPTHS OF 10 TO 30 INCHES ARE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, AND IOWA. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES OVER THIS AREA. SNOW DEPTHS OF LESS THAN 6 INCHES ARE OCCURRING OVER MISSOURI AND NORTH ARKANSAS EXTENDING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL BASINS. SEVERAL STREAMS REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS. STREAMFLOW DATA IS PROVIDED BY THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS. ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER... MAJOR RISES ARE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVERS WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING FROM PADUCAH, KY TO BATON ROUGE, LA. CRESTING CONDITIONS ARE NEAR HELENA, AR AT THIS TIME. CRESTING CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE FUTURE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 16 DAYS PRODUCES ANOTHER CREST IN LATE MARCH. THAT ANTICIPATED CREST MAY APPROACH THE SAME LEVELS AS THE CURRENT FLOOD EVENT FOR THE LOWER OHIO AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. SINCE THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER, VERY WET SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, AND ELEVATED STREAMFLOW; SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL. SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS: 3/6 MISSISSIPPI RIVER VICKSBURG MS 252% MISSISSIPPI RIVER RED RIVER LANDING LA 230% MISSISSIPPI RIVER BATON ROUGE LA 220% ATCHAFALAYA RIVER SIMMESPORT LA 231% BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER OHIO AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. ...LOWER PEARL RIVER BASIN... SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT AND STREAMFLOWS ARE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEDIAN ARE GIVEN BELOW. 3/6 PEARL RIVER COLUMBIA MS 283% PEARL RIVER BOGALUSA LA 225% BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE, STREAMFLOWS, AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS; AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE PEARL RIVER BASIN. ...AMITE/COMITE/NORTHSHORE DRAINAGE BASINS... SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL. HEAVIER RAINFALL IN THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR CAUSED SOME MINOR FLOODING BUT ALL RIVERS HAVE RECEDED. NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEDIAN ARE GIVEN BELOW. 3/6 AMITE RIVER DARLINGTON LA 90% AMITE RIVER DENHAM SPRINGS LA 124% COMITE RIVER OLIVE BRANCH LA 114% TCHEFUNCTE RIVER FOLSOM LA 116% TICKFAW RIVER HOLDEN LA 124% TANGIPAHOA RIVER ROBERT LA 119% BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE, STREAMFLOWS, AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS; AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE AMITE, COMITE, AND NORTHSHORE RIVER BASINS. ...PASCAGOULA BASIN IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI... SOIL MOISTURE IS ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS AND RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED STREAMFLOWS TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE PASCAGOULA RIVER. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOW AS A PERCENT OF MEDIAN IS GIVEN BELOW. 3/6 PASCAGOULA RIVER MERRILL MS 271% BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE, STREAMFLOWS, AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS; AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE PASCAGOULA RIVER BASIN. ...EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES CHANCES OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES CHANCES OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULE FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SPRING 2019. $$