FGUS76 KMTR 152013
ESFMTR
CAC001-013-041-053-055-069-075-081-085-087-097-162015-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1213 PM PST Thu Feb 15 2024

...MODERATE RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY RAPID 
RISES ALONG AREA CREEKS, STREAMS AND RIVERS...

* WHAT...A series of storms forecasted to move through the region 
  this weekend and into the first half of next week will bring the 
  potential for moderate to rapid rises along area creeks, streams, 
  and rivers across the region. Soil moisture remains high from 
  previous storms earlier this month and will reach saturation this 
  weekend as the first of three cold fronts moves through the area. 
  Once saturated, additional rainfall will runoff resulting in 
  moderate to rapid rises on our creeks, streams, and rivers, as 
  well as lead to nuisance and/or minor flooding. Latest river 
  forecasts from the CNRFC depict an initial rise on area creeks, 
  streams, and rivers on Saturday and Saturday night with a larger 
  rise on Monday and Tuesday. The latest update from CNRFC lowered 
  the probabilities of reaching flood stage for most of the rivers. 
  The current ensemble guidance from the CNRFC indicates the Russian 
  River at Guerneville, the San Lorenzo River at Big Trees and the 
  Carmel River at Robles del Rio have a 20% chance of reaching flood 
  stage in the next 5 day while the Salinas River at Spreckels and 
  Pajaro River at Chittenden which will be slower to crest will have 
  a 20% chance of reaching flood stage in the next 10 days. Although 
  most sites are forecast to remain below flood stage, some 
  locations may reach monitor stage or minor flood stage.

  Model guidance suggests greatest accumulation of precipitation 
  will be observed along the coastal ranges. Rainfall totals remain 
  consistent with 1 to 3 inches expected across most areas with 3-6 
  inches expected over favored peaks and higher terrain of the 
  coastal hills and mountains.

  USGS instrumentation throughout the San Francisco Bay Area 
  indicates that shallow soils on steep hillsides are approaching 
  saturation. This coupled with the forecasted precipitation means 
  shallow landslides are possible.

* WHERE...For the entire forecast area from Napa and Sonoma 
  Counties and south through Monterey and San Benito Counties. 
  Although the current forecast shows these creeks and rivers 
  remaining below flood stage, some locations may reach monitor 
  stage. 

* WHEN...Saturday through Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Localized ponding of water in low-lying or
  poorly drained areas, such as freeway offramps.

Details regarding this storm will likely change as the system
nears. Therefore, stay tuned to the latest forecast for the most
up to date weather information. Confidence is high that we will
receive rainfall from this system. However, confidence is
moderate with respect to location and total rainfall amounts.

$$

CW