FNUS21 KWNS 091507
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024

Valid 091700Z - 101200Z

An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southern NM into
far southwest TX. 15 UTC surface observations show low morning RH
values (in the teens to low 20s) across the region with around 15%
RH observed in the residual layer of the 12 UTC EPZ sounding. RH
values should fall into the single digits by late afternoon as
southwest winds increase to 15-20 mph in the wake of a passing
mid-level disturbance. Additionally, latest ensemble guidance has
shown better agreement in at least a few hours of elevated fire
weather conditions across southern NM/southwest TX where ERCs are in
the 80-90th percentile.

..Moore.. 05/09/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024/

...Synopsis...
The elongated upper trough will evolve into a closed low over the
Great Basin today. Farther east, the primary upper trough will move
into parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will push south into the Southern Plains and cooler air will
push up against the southern Rockies.

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low for most areas.
Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Southwest. Winds
outside of terrain-favored areas will reach 15-20 mph with RH
falling to 10-20%. Fuels in Arizona still do not support a large
fire threat. Fuels into New Mexico are drier, but the duration of
any elevated conditions appears too limited to support highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$