FNUS73 KTOP 241248 FWSTOP SPOT FORECAST for Burgess...USFWS National Weather Service Topeka KS 748 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... Precipitation chances are small though not zero. Any precipitation, which should be light, should remain to the southwest of the site. Winds will be light throughout the day, generally veering from the north to northeast more to the east to southeast during the day. With light winds and a morning inversion, smoke dispersal will be rather limited initially. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming sunny. Chance of pcpn......10 percent. Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 72. RH..................64 percent at ignition...Min 29 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Winds north at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming east 6 to 7 mph in the late morning and early afternoon, then shifting to the southeast around 6 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5500 ft AGL. Smoke dispersal.....Poor /2900 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good /34100 knot-ft/. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky cover.......MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC MCR PC Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 Temp............51 55 61 65 67 68 70 71 72 72 RH..............64 57 48 41 38 34 29 29 29 29 20 FT wind dir..N NE NE E E E E E SE SE 20 FT wind spd..3 4 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT wind gust. 8 12 11 9 8 7 8 8 8 Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.7 1.6 3.1 3.8 4.4 4.7 5.2 5.3 5.5 Haines index....4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 SDspl kt-ft/10003 6 16 34 31 31 28 31 32 33 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers late in the evening. Chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Chance of pcpn......50 percent. Temperature.........Min 53. RH..................Max 86 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms overnight. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Smoke dispersal.....Good (37400 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (4200 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky cover.......PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 20 20 30 50 Temp............71 66 60 59 57 55 RH..............30 39 53 58 65 71 20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT wind spd..6 6 7 7 8 8 20 FT wind gust.9 9 12 12 13 13 Mix hgt (ft)....5300 500 400 500 500 500 Haines index....4 4 5 4 4 3 SDspl kt-ft/100037 4 5 6 6 6 .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Chance of rain showers early in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms through the day. Rain showers. Chance of pcpn......80 percent. Temperature.........Max 67. RH..................Min 71 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 8 to 16 mph with gusts to around 25 mph increasing to 18 to 19 mph with gusts to around 29 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8800 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (37500 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky cover.......MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY Weather cov.....CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).50 80 80 80 Temp............54 56 60 63 RH..............79 86 84 81 20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE 20 FT wind spd..8 12 16 19 20 FT wind gust.13 18 23 27 Mix hgt (ft)....600 900 1600 1500 Haines index....3 3 3 3 SDspl kt-ft/10009 16 36 38 $$ Forecaster...Poage Requested by...David Spencer Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412211.0/TOP .DELDT 04/24/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL david_spencer@fws.gov