FNUS74 KEPZ 092237 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for 16 Springs RX...USDA Fores Service National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 437 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 MDT on May 09. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Mainly dry and warm with a wind shift to the northeast by early Friday morning. Moisture will increase and give a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms Friday and Saturday afternoons. Wind shift back to the west Sunday and beyond and with rapid drying. .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. Min temperature.....Around 41. Max humidity........73 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph with gusts to around 20 mph shifting to the northeast around 6 mph after 3 am. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 9 to 18 mph shifting to the northeast around 8 mph overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (176600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (4300 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........3 3 12 31 31 53 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............69 58 52 48 45 42 RH..............13 20 25 30 45 62 20 ft wind......SW 12 SW 12 W 6 NW 5 NW 5 NE 6 20 ft wind gust.21 18 12 13 13 12 Mix hgt (ft)....8400 8400 600 600 500 500 Transport wind..W 18 W 18 W 9 W 9 NE 8 NE 8 Vrate kt-ft/1K..177 177 4 4 8 8 Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of pcpn......10 percent. Max temperature.....Around 66. Min humidity........34 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 11 mph. Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East around 8 mph shifting to the southeast 13 to 16 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11100 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (74600 knot-ft) in the afternoon. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........65 65 61 43 43 51 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 10 10 Temp............41 48 56 61 65 66 RH..............73 63 53 41 35 34 20 ft wind......NE 5 NE 5 E 7 E 9 E 9 SE 11 20 ft wind gust.10 10 14 20 20 20 Mix hgt (ft)....1600 1600 4300 4300 5300 5300 Transport wind..E 8 E 8 SE 13 SE 13 SE 16 SE 16 Vrate kt-ft/1K..11 11 58 58 75 75 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR FAIR GOOD GOOD .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms overnight. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. Min temperature.....Around 46. Max humidity........96 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms overnight. Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 11 to 13 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (44000 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (12800 knot-ft) late in the night. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky (%).........47 60 78 90 Weather cov.....NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE S CHC S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 30 30 Temp............63 54 50 47 RH..............39 61 77 89 20 FT wind......SE 9G17 SE 8G16 SE 8G16 SE 8G15 Mix hgt (ft)....3100 3100 1200 1400 Transport wind..E 13 E 13 SE 11 SE 12 Vrate kt-ft/1K..44 44 13 15 Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR POOR POOR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......60 percent. Max temperature.....Around 69. Min humidity........31 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the south late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 10 to 14 mph increasing to southwest around 23 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (18400 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (85400 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to excellent (154600 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM Sky (%).........86 72 64 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).50 50 60 Temp............46 60 68 RH..............96 62 37 20 FT wind......SE 7G12 SE 8G15 S 10G22 Mix hgt (ft)....1700 5300 7400 Transport wind..SE 10 SW 14 SW 23 Vrate kt-ft/1K..18 85 155 Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD EXNT .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY... Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. .MONDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds around 10 mph. .TUESDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds around 9 mph. $$ Forecaster...HEFNER Requested by...Sacramento Ranger District Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413644.0/EPZ .DELDT 05/09/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Matthew.barone@usda.gov