FXPN60 PGUM 160858 AAA
AFDWAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
655 PM CHST SAT MAY 16 2015
UPDATED TO INCLUDE MICRONESIA DISCUSSION
.SYNOPSIS... 
AT 2 PM TYPHOON DOLPHIN WAS ABOUT 235 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND 
MOVING STEADILY AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THAT 
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH DOLPHIN HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE 
ISLANDS...ALLOWING THE MARIANAS TO DRY OUT.
&&
.DISCUSSION... 
WITH THE WELCOME DEPARTURE OF DOLPHIN...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS IN 
STORE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO AS DRIER TRADE WINDS RETURN TO THE 
REGION AROUND MID-WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED 
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL... BECOMING 
MAINLY GENTLE WED AND THU. THE GOOD NEWS--NO MORE TROPICAL SYSTEMS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.MARINE... 
SEAS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 
TUESDAY WINDS WILL BE MAINLY GENTLE...AND SEAS SHOULD SETTLE INTO 
THE 5-FOOT RANGE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY. 
&&
.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SUPER TYPHOON DOLPHIN OVER THE 
PHILIPPINE SEA WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN NEAR CHUUK AND 
POHNPEI THRU MONDAY. FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS 
CENTERED SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN NEAR 7N168E. FRESH TRADE WINDS 
CONVERGING ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY HAVE BEEN GENERATING 
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. THIS 
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER MAJURO THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS 
DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO APPROACH KOSRAE.
THE LATEST VW SATELLITE LOOPS REVEAL AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND 
ASSOCIATED TROUGH NORTH OF KWAJALEIN NEAR 13N. THESE FEATURES ARE 
DIGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD 10N. SUBSIDENCE FROM THESE FEATURES CAN 
HINDER DEVELOPMENT ON THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS IT DRIFTS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NEVERTHELESS 
MODEST CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD TRIGGER WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KOSRAE BY SUNDAY 
NIGHT...POHNPEI ON MONDAY AND CHUUK NEAR TUESDAY. AFTER THE 
DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE MARSHALLS ON MONDAY...DRIER 
TRADES SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF FAIRER WEATHER. BY MIDWEEK...A 
TRADE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM UPSTREAM EAST OF THE DATE LINE WILL 
BRING BACK WETNESS TO MAJURO. IT WILL ALSO PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY 
NEAR KOSRAE THRU MIDWEEK.
&&
.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED UNDER THE EASTERN 
MICRONESIA SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
SUBSIDENCE SOUTH OF SUPER TYPHOON DOLPHIN OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA 
CENTERED NEAR 16N141E IS GOING TO SUSTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS YAP AND 
KOROR THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM 
NEAR CHUUK WILL CONTINUE THIS SAME PATTERN UNTIL MIDWEEK. AFTERWARD 
AN ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWER REGIME SHOULD RETURN TO BOTH LOCALES.
NORTH SWELL PRODUCED BY SUPER TYPHOON DOLPHIN WELL NORTH OF THE 
REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE ARE REACHING THESE TWO PLACES. THIS 
SWELL WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF ON BOTH THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS 
DOLPHIN RECURVES TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SWELL WILL BEGIN 
TO SHIFT WESTWARD AWAY FROM PALAU AND YAP. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SURF TO 
DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CHST SUNDAY 
     FOR PMZ151>154.
&&
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN