FXPQ50 PGUM 020759
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
559 PM ChST Thu May 2 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Latest satellite imagery is showing partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers across the Marianas. Altimetry data is indicating seas of 4
to 5 feet. 

&&

.Discussion...
Skies have cleared out and showers diminished as the remnant surface
trough has cleared the Marianas. Drier trade-wind pattern expected 
for the period. May see a slight uptick in showers and clouds as a 
couple of trade troughs pass through, with the first being tomorrow 
into tomorrow evening and the second being on Sunday, but kept shower
coverage isolated.

&&

.Marine/Surf...
Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected to continue through the 
beginning of next week. Combined seas of 4 to 5 feet expected until a
couple of northerly swells enter the region. The first arrives 
sometime around Sunday, while the second, larger one arrives sometime
around Tuesday, with seas rising to 5 to 7 feet.

There will be a moderate risk of rip currents along east facing 
reefs for the next several days, with a low risk expected along all 
other reefs. The northerly swell is expected to increase by around 
Sunday, with surf likely rising along north and west facing reefs.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Latest scatterometer and satellite data shows convergent trade-wind 
flow across most of the region with embedded troughs moving through
the flow. Chuuk Lagoon has been fairly dry today as it is currently 
west of the convergent flow and troughs, and is expected to remain 
dry tonight, before the trough currently near Pohnpei pushes into the
state Friday. Pohnpei and Majuro are currently on the northern edge 
of the band of showers that extend from just south of Pohnpei, 
through Kosrae, and onward to the Date Line, passing south of Majuro.
This will allow for showers to become isolated at both Pohnpei and 
Majuro tonight, before scattered showers move back into Pohnpei 
Friday and Friday night for Majuro. The northern islands of the RMI 
and islands north of 7N, remain fairly dry and are expected to remain
dry through the weekend. The overall trade-wind pattern is not 
expected to change much through the middle of next week, keeping most
of the showers south of 8N, with showers expected from Chuuk to 
Majuro.

Over the ocean, winds are expected to be from the northeast to east
and mostly moderate, becoming fresh at times. Combined seas, as
reported by altimetry and the buoy near Majuro, are around 4 to 7 
feet. Through the middle of next week, not expecting any major 
changes in wind or sea conditions.

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau...
Scatterometer and satellite data shows the Near-Equatorial Trough
(NET) is still south of the main islands of Palau and Yap, extending
westward from near the equator near 147E and exiting the region near
3N130. Convergence north of the NET is producing scattered to
numerous showers across Palau this evening, passing just south of Yap
Proper, where showers are still fairly isolated. The very weak 
circulation that was embedded within the NET yesterday is currently
no longer indistinguishable from the NET this evening in both 
satellite imagery and scatterometer data. A broad trough can also be
seen near the border of Yap and Chuuk State, and slowly drifting 
westward.

The convergence zone north of the NET will bring numerous showers,
with the potential of some occasional gusts up to 30 mph in the
heavier showers to Palau tonight, while Yap Proper and will stay 
just north of most of these showers. The convergence zone is 
expected to weaken this weekend, allowing showers to decrease down to
isolated this weekend, before increasing again early next week as 
the trough currently in eastern Yap state arrives at Palau. Scattered
showers are expected across most of Yap State near and south of 8N, 
but Yap Proper and the nearby islands of Ulithi and Fais are 
currently just north of most of the convective activity and models 
keep most of the showers just south of these locations through the 
middle of next week. Looking toward the latter half of next week, 
models show a broad, but weak circulation developing within the NET.
Models keep this feature weak, but it will help to keep the 
potential for showers elevated at Palau and possibly Yap late next 
week.

Besides the potential of some gusty and seas choppy near heavier 
showers and thunderstorms at Palau tonight, winds are expected to be
fairly moderate and from the northeast to east. Combined seas are 
expected to be around 4 to 6 feet through early next week. Models are
showing some north swell entering the region around midweek, but 
this swell is currently expected to be 4 feet or less, causing 
little change in overall sea heights, but may see some elevated north
surf for a couple of days.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None. 
MP...None. 
Marianas Waters...None. 

&&

$$

Marianas: Slagle
Micronesia: Schank